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NYT: US military threat tests Chavismo's alliances

La Patilla

Venezuela

Tuesday, November 18


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A Russian fighter jet and rocket launcher on display in San Carlos del Meta, Venezuela. Credit: Marco Bello/Reuters

Cuban bodyguards, Chinese radars, Iranian patrol boats, and Russian missiles.

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The Venezuelan regime has spent billions of dollars over the years on weapons and security services from the United States' adversaries, while deepening its confrontation with that country.

Now, President Trump's threats to escalate the conflict are putting these alliances to the test.

The United States has amassed nearly 15,000 troops and some of its most modern warships in the Caribbean, declared Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro illegitimate, and designated him the leader of a drug-trafficking terrorist organization. On Monday, Mr. Trump made the most explicit connection to date between the military deployment and Mr. Maduro's rule, telling reporters that he had no sympathy for the Venezuelan government.

“We simply have to deal with Venezuela,” he added. In recent weeks, Mr. Trump has wavered between suggesting imminent attacks against Venezuela and engaging in diplomatic dialogue with Mr. Maduro.

Few in Washington or in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, expect the Venezuelan military to withstand a coordinated attack by U.S. military might, if that is what Mr. Trump decides.

According to analysts and people close to the Venezuelan government, none of Mr. Maduro's allies have the capacity or the political will to increase their support in a way that would fundamentally tip the balance of the conflict in favor of Venezuela.

These alliances have always been guided more by economic benefit than by a strong ideological affinity, although they have played an important role in supporting Mr. Maduro and his mentor and predecessor, Hugo Chávez, during periods of crisis.

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