Prime Minister François Bayrou has announced that he will submit his minority government to a vote of confidence on 8 September in the National Assembly. The vote will be decisive: if he does not win majority support, Bayrou will have to resign, opening the door to another institutional crisis for President Emmanuel Macron, who already suffered the fall of his previous head of government, Michel Barnier, following a vote of no confidence at the end of 2024.
The reason for the confrontation is the ambitious and controversial budget plan for 2026, which includes a €44 billion adjustment to contain the public deficit. The measures include a freeze on benefits, cuts in social programs and, most controversially, the elimination of two public holidays. With these measures, the government aims to reduce the deficit from 5.8% of GDP in 2024 to 4.6% in 2026, with the goal of bringing it below 3% in 2029, in line with the European Union's Stability and Growth Pact.
Bayrou defended the decision at a press conference in Paris on Monday, where he stressed the need to address the situation without delay:"Yes, it's risky, but it's even riskier to do nothing," he declared. He also insisted that"clarification" is needed regarding the budget situation and the way to correct it, and the place to do so is"in Parliament," not "in the riots on the streets."
However, parliamentary arithmetic doesn't work in his favor. The centrists and conservatives who support him don't have an absolute majority in the National Assembly, and the main opposition blocs have already announced their rejection.
The far-right National Rally, the Greens, the left-wing France Insoumise and the Socialists have all said they will vote against it. “François Bayrou clearly has not understood that the French people are fully aware of the economic and financial crisis our country has been plunged into after eight years of Macronism,” wrote Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right party, on social media.
The Socialist Party, whose support was considered key, also closed the door unless there was a drastic change in the economic plan, something Bayrou has flatly ruled out."I will not abandon" the adjustment plan proposed in July, affirmed the prime minister, who says he is willing to receive"all parliamentary groups," but without giving in on what he considers essential reforms to preserve the country's "freedom and sovereignty."
Growing social and economic unrest
Political risk is compounded by growing social unrest. In parallel with the parliamentary debate, unions and citizen movements have called for a major protest on September 10 under the slogan"Block Everything," a mobilization that could serve as a barometer of public rejection of austerity policies.
The tension is already being felt in the financial markets. The CAC-40 index on the Paris stock exchange closed down 1.6% on Monday, while the spread between French and German bonds reached its highest level since June, reflecting investor fears of further instability.
Bayrou, who has tried in vain to improve his public image over the summer—forgoing vacations and launching a YouTube channel, “FB Direct,” to explain his measures—arrives at this meeting with his popularity at an all-time low for a head of government in the Macron era. Even so, he insists that the challenge is unavoidable: “If the path we choose is to pretend the problem doesn’t exist, we will not escape. We will not escape as a state and as a society because our freedom and sovereignty are at stake,” he warned.
If the executive branch fails to pass the vote of confidence, President Emmanuel Macron would have several options on the table: immediately appointing a new prime minister, keeping Bayrou on as interim head of a provisional government, or, alternatively, calling snap legislative elections again.
Barely nine months into office, Bayrou argued that accepting this scenario is part of the political challenge. In his view, the"risk" of a new institutional crisis—after the one that shook the country in 2024 with early elections—constitutes "the condition for the French to become aware" of the seriousness of the fiscal problem facing France.
On September 8, France will not only define the future of a government, but will also test its ability to address an economic adjustment that divides the country and threatens to usher in a new era of political instability.
