The latest occurrence was yesterday. Flights at Vilnius Airport were suspended for the second day in a row after the sighting of balloons used to smuggle cigarettes from neighboring Belarus. Today, Lithuania closed the border crossings along the 680 km border with Minsk until Wednesday,"except for diplomats and EU citizens leaving the country."

At the end of this morning's Security Council meeting, Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene announced that the balloons would be shot down:"By doing this, we are sending a signal to Belarus that no hybrid attack will be tolerated here, and we will take all the most severe measures to stop such attacks." The prime minister did not rule out the possibility of triggering Article 4 of the NATO treaty, which allows countries to request talks with allies"whenever, in the opinion of one of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of one of the parties is threatened." The procedure has only been used nine times in NATO's history, but was activated by Poland and Estonia after two instances of violations of Russian airspace in September.

The phenomenon has been ongoing for some time, but appears to have intensified since January. In 2024, 226 shipments were seized, totaling just under 1.4 million packs of cigarettes. Deividas Matulionis, senior advisor to the President of the Republic, told LRT radio that these are not isolated incidents but a true national emergency."There is a serious crisis underway, and it doesn't just concern the government: it's an issue that requires everyone's commitment to resolve," Matulionis said.

"It is increasingly clear that this is not simply a case of smuggling being used as a cover. In reality, it is a hybrid attack of a psychological nature," the advisor continued, defining the phenomenon as a deliberate strategy to destabilize the country. This is why"decisive action is needed. We hope that immediate initiatives will be taken, but this also requires strong diplomatic steps and legal instruments that Parliament should approve as soon as possible." Hence the appeal not to treat the phenomenon as a simple internal problem: "This is not just a Lithuanian issue. We must clearly tell our partners that we are the target of a hybrid attack and we expect additional support."

Matulionis, however, expressed skepticism about closing the borders with Belarus:"If it's a hybrid action, it won't be much use. If it's truly organized smuggling, then it could have some effect." The councilor also addressed the issue of transit to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, specifying that"limiting transit doesn't mean closing it completely. It's about introducing some restrictions, for example, on Belarusian goods bound for Kaliningrad. In any case, it would be the last measure to be considered."