With the big semi-final between Greece and Turkey just around the corner, we analyzed the two top players who will be on the court for the historic matchup.

The scene is set to be heated, especially after the Ataman and Spanoulis statements, the fight escaped the four lines of the field.

Greece returned to the semifinals for the first time since 2009, sweeping Lithuania 87-76. Antetokoumbo scored 29 points to lead the Greek team to a historic first. Meanwhile, Turkey eliminated Poland with a point-center setter: Sengun scored a triple-double and showed why he is considered a tournament MVP candidate.

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Alperen Sengun, the two stars of the NBA, will largely determine the outcome of the match. But what do the statistics say about who excels in the titanic battle between them?

Battle of the dots: what do the numbers say?

According to official FIBA data, Giannis Antetokounmpo is making the most mature and full-bodied appearances in tournaments with the official favorite, averaging 29.8 points.

On the other hand, Alperen Sengun leads Turkey with 21.6 points, showing why the Houston Rockets view him as the point-center of the future.

The two stars act as key players for their teams. But who excels and in what areas?

Antetokounmpo gives Greece a +24.7 points difference per 100 possessions when he is on the floor (ON/OFF), while Sengun gives Turkey a +25.9 points difference. In Net Rating—the net points difference per 100 possessions—Giannis is at +25.2 and Sengun is at +26.7.

Simply put: with both of them on the court, their teams win by a landslide.

(Net Rating measures the difference OFFRTG–DEFRTG, while ON/OFF captures how much the team's performance changes with the player in/out).

Shooting efficiency is also an impressive element.

Antetokounmpo records an efficiency of 70.8%, a number that testifies to his unstoppable accuracy near the basket, but also to his good selection of executions overall.

The Turkish star from Kerasounta is slightly below Giannis at 62.8%.

We remind you that the eFG% index weighs three-pointers as 1.5 shots to more accurately reflect the true value of a shooter.

Giannis has a usage rate of 39.2%, meaning that approximately 4 out of 10 possessions for Greece end up in his hands.

The leader of the official favorite pulls the defense towards him, opens up lanes for his teammates and punishes - at the first opportunity - in transition.

Sengun plays with a lower usage, 28.7%, which demonstrates the greater pluralism in the distribution of possessions in Turkey, without necessarily meaning less influence.

(Usage Rate estimates the percentage of team plays that a player consumes while on the court).

The Turkish star excels at distributing the game compared to Giannis. With an assist rate of 41.7%—of his teammates’ successful baskets, the last pass often comes out of his own hands—Sengun acts as a team leader from the high post and elbows, distributing spacing and cuts like… a playmaker in a tall body.

Giannis is not significantly behind (26.5% assist rate). However, under Spanoulis, his role is primarily executive. He often draws two and three opponents and forces defenses to collapse like a house of cards.

What do statistics mean in practice?

If the game goes at a high pace, Greece is favored. Antetokounmpo's unreal combination of Usage 39.2% and eFG% 70.8% leaves defenses reeling that don't have time to set up.

If, on the contrary, he locks in half the court, Sengun can direct the match: with an AST% of 41.7% and a Net Rating of +26.7, Turkey finds a flow of handoffs, back cuts and short-roll decisions that wear down the Greek defense.

In each scenario, the ON/OFF differences around +25 for both tell us that the match will be decided by the minutes the stars need to rest without their team collapsing.

If the game becomes a rodeo with open court play, Greece will have the upper hand. If we go into a regular chess-style game of large possessions, Shengun can feed his teammates in a decisive way.