Trump hopes to pass the legislation before the national holiday. A Democrat tried to crush that hope by speaking for nearly nine hours – without success.

• Andreas Brattåker Støyva
  
  Journalist
• Anna Victoria Stjern
  Journalist
  

The case is being updated.

On Saturday, Donald Trump's controversial One Big Beautiful Bill Act was approved in the Senate and sent on to the House of Representatives and its 435 voting members.

After a vote lasting around six hours, it became clear on Thursday night Norwegian time that a majority of 219 had voted to process the comprehensive legislative package.

Before the bill was voted on, it was debated in the House of Representatives. The debate began with the Democratic leader in the House, Hakeem Jeffries, taking the podium. He brought with him several ring binders.

Jeffries made it clear that he would take the time he needed.

And he did. For 8 hours and 45 minutes he stood and read from his ring binders. In doing so, he broke the old House of Representatives speaking time record of eight hours and 32 minutes.

If the legislative package is passed, it will be huge for Trump, say US experts.

Unlimited talk time

For nearly nine hours, Jefferies shared stories from his binders about Americans who would be hit hard by the package if it passes. The stories were about people who would lose health insurance, food stamps and other benefits.

“People are going to die,” Jefferies said.

When Mike Johnson of the Republican Party took over the podium, he promised not to spend as much time as the Democratic leader.

"Ronald Reagan once said that no speech should last longer than 20 minutes. Unlike the Democratic leader, I will respect my colleagues' time and be brief," Johnson said.

During his 24-minute speech, he claimed that all Americans will benefit from this package.

– Now the chances are good

Republican Johnson said in advance that he expected the legislative package to be passed around 2 p.m. Norwegian time. That did not happen.

Trump himself has been clear that he wants the proposal to be approved before the US National Day on July 4. Løkke believes that is possible.

– They have to adopt the exact same wording that was approved in the Senate. There is no room for change. In that case, it has to go back to the Senate and be approved again. The Republicans don't want that, he says.

US expert Sofie Høgestøl also believes that the chances are good that the legislative package will be passed before the National Day.

– Now the chances are good. It was a bit up in the air. But now Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House of Representatives, has brought the Republicans on board. They seem to be determined that it will now happen. The pressure Trump will put on them will be enormous, she says.

Great pressure

Democrats are expected to oppose the bill unanimously, but they are in the minority. In addition, several hardliners and members of the Republican Freedom Caucus have been dissatisfied with parts of the bill's content.

They have criticized, among other things, that the proposal will lead to increased national debt. Some moderates in the party have been skeptical of the cuts in Medicaid. Høgestøl does not believe that any of them will now oppose Trump's proposal.

– You have voted for the proposal to be considered. You don't vote for consideration, then vote against the proposal.

Among Trump's party members, only Thomas Massie of Kentucky has explicitly said he will vote against the proposal. On Thursday, there was also talk that Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania might vote against it, according to CNN.

– Trump has a lot of capital in the party. Most people know that they are risking a lot by going against him, says Løkke.

Risk

Løkke himself believes that the bill will pass. If so, it will mean that Trump has achieved success for a great many of his policies.

– He will extend the tax cuts he introduced in his first term as president. It also means cuts to Medicaid and health benefits. In addition, it means a major political risk in the run-up to the 2026 midterm elections.

Polls show that many Republican voters are skeptical of cuts.

– Especially when it affects them themselves, says Løkke.

That could cause problems for Trump and the Republican Party next year, when the composition of the House of Representatives and the Senate could change, he explains. The Republican majority there now is slim.

– It doesn't seem like Trump understands, or wants to understand, that there is a risk.

Høgestøl also says the proposal carries risks. She points out that in many red states, a large proportion of the population is dependent on Medicaid, which they are now in danger of losing.

Insecurity

Høgestøl believes the Democrats will make the legislation a key part of their campaign leading up to next year's midterm elections. She believes they will try to capitalize on the uncertainty it creates.

The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that as many as 16 million Americans could lose health insurance by 2034, as a result of Trump's cuts.

In other words, most of the consequences will come after the by-election, Høgestøl points out.

– Has Trump understood the risk?

– He will not run for re-election. For him, the legislative package is extremely important. It will be the crowning achievement in a very eventful six-month period, says Høgestøl and adds:

– I think he will be very pleased to be able to sign this on National Day.