Some people think that everything happening in our region is a conspiracy, that we don't know the truth about what's happening, and that all we're seeing are elaborate scenarios aimed at convincing us that there's a war, even after the United States targeted three Iranian nuclear sites. In reality, from their perspective, this was all consensual. Another group of people never thought, not for a moment, that a war could ever break out between Israel and Iran, let alone the United States directly entering it, because it would destroy the regional order that benefits the West. They believe that the ceasefire is a confirmation of their opinion! Another group believes that Israel's expansion now, to realize the myth of Greater Israel, is an inevitable reality. The challenge facing these views is the reality that doesn't unfold as they imagine. Therefore, we understand that analysis doesn't dictate reality; rather, reality imposes itself without permission. From current events, we attempt to sketch five scenarios for what a ceasefire might hold, perhaps illuminating the way.
The first scenario assumes that Iran held firm after the ceasefire and remained defiant. Numerous pieces of evidence support this scenario. Iran has continued to confront the Israeli-American aggression, despite the severity of the preemptive strike and the loss of its top military commanders, in addition to the senior scientists responsible for the nuclear program. Even after Israeli fighter jets violated Iranian airspace, Iranian missiles continued to strike the heart of Tel Aviv and sensitive and vital areas considered essential to Israeli national security. These include, for example, one of two oil refineries on which Israel relies for fuel production, and the headquarters of the Mossad, which infiltrated Iran through traitors and spies, inflicting painful blows. Iran has managed to restore some balance, despite the unequal results between the two sides. A ceasefire without completely destroying the Iranian nuclear program or toppling the ruling regime will have a long-term impact.
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The second scenario assumes that Iran failed and was defeated. Some evidence supports this trend, as the number of Iranian missiles targeting Israel has decreased, despite their high destructive power. Some have interpreted this as Iran having no need to bombard Tel Aviv's skies with missiles now that the ability of Israel's air defense systems (Arrow, David's Sling, and Iron Dome) and the American THAAD system to intercept Iranian missiles has diminished. With the decline in Israeli performance and the Trump administration's direct entry into the war, a ceasefire was reached. Catastrophic consequences were expected, including the fall of the regime and Iran's fragmentation into four small states: Baluchistan in southeastern Iran, Azerbaijan in the northeast, the Kurds in the northwest, and the Ahwazi Arabs in the southwest. These developments will result in a wave of displacement and asylum to Turkey and Europe, similar to the one that occurred in Syria. The Gulf Arab region will also bear a heavy price due to the regional chaos, paying for it through its own stability and the cohesion of its states. The balance of power in Central Asia will be disrupted, and Pakistan, China, and Russia will lose a friendly state, returning to the West's embrace as it was under the Shah before the 1979 revolution. The Revolutionary Guard, or what remains of it, will become a militia with no responsibilities toward the state or the people, but one that possesses the remnants of a nuclear program and some of its outcomes. Meanwhile, Israel will dominate the area beyond the Euphrates River.
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The third scenario assumes that both Iran and Israel were exhausted by the war, despite its sudden end. While this stalemate may appear to favor Israel after the United States intervened, the reality may favor a third party not involved in the conflict: Turkey. Let us remember that the Turkish project did not die, but rather transformed after it lost the Brotherhood card. We all saw how it benefited from the Gaza War, surprising everyone by deploying al-Julani's forces, which toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime within a week. As the momentum of the prevailing projects in the region wanes, whether Israeli or Iranian, this paves the way for the development of the Organization of Turkic States, which includes Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Manifestations of Turkish expansionist ambition extend beyond the Arab Levant, and we see evidence of it in Libya, Sudan, and Somalia. However, we will limit ourselves to pointing out its role in the Arab Levant. We do not rule out the possibility that Türkiye will exploit the situation to surprise everyone by mobilizing its loyalists to expand into Iraq, similar to what it did in Syria, especially after Iranian support declined.
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The fourth scenario assumes that Israel believes it has not achieved the results of the war. There is plenty of evidence: just as Israel violates Iranian airspace, the latter has responded in kind, and just as it targets Iranian territory, the latter has struck back. Even if the number of casualties is higher in Iran, the results will change if the ratio of casualties to each side's population is measured. We must take into account that the equation has changed after the US strikes on Iran. The repercussions will not be limited to the fall of Netanyahu's far-right government, but also the gains it has reaped since launching its war on Gaza in October 2023 will be at stake, given that Israel has not completely destroyed Hezbollah and Hamas, let alone the Houthis! Israel cannot absorb this type of outcome in a war that has struck deep within and destabilized society. Let us remember that before the ceasefire, the number of Israelis leaving for Cyprus and Greece had already surged, reaching into the thousands. On the fifth day of the confrontations with Iran, the Israeli Minister of Transportation said,"We will not allow Israelis to leave the country at this stage, with the exception of those who came to visit the country, whether they were tourists, on business, or diplomats. They will be the ones who will return home!" What if a sense of failure creeps into Israel? Then the Zionist project will be put to the test.
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Finally, the fifth scenario, assuming that the ceasefire will not hold despite the American role, will have disastrous repercussions for the region. The expected outcome is an expansion of the conflict to directly involve some regional countries, opening up or enhancing the possibility of a defensive axis between Israel and these countries, led by the United States, in which roles are distributed and interests complement or overlap. This defensive axis will have other dimensions in the post-war period, not limited to a military alliance, but also encompassing full economic normalization, contributing to the success of the India-Europe Corridor project, launched at the G20 summit two years ago.
Witness: no matter how the interim results favor the falsifiers of history, who claim to be correcting history while in fact corrupting it, history will correct itself! Even if some persist in the illusion that shared interests might revive hopes for peace, they are destined for a new round of fragmentation of what remains of the homelands, this time in the heart of the Arab world.
