BRASILIA — Former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) arrives a week before his trial at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) isolated from his main allies, without control of his communication and involved in a firefight between two groups with conflicting views on the best way to protect him — and on who should be the name to succeed him.

Bolsonaro has been under house arrest since August 4th for failing to comply with precautionary measures ordered on July 18th by Justice Alexandre de Moraes. On that date, the Court had imposed an electronic ankle bracelet, a ban on social media use, and a nighttime curfew, among other measures.

The First Chamber of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) begins next week, on September 2nd, the criminal case against Bolsonaro and seven former members of his administration. They make up the so-called"crucial group" of those accused by the Attorney General's Office (PGR) of attempted coup d'état.

Bolsonaro's"new entourage" is at the center of the dissatisfaction of his allies, who have been ousted from his circle for various reasons. In May, one of his most loyal supporters, lawyer Fabio Wajngarten, was fired from the PL after falling out with former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro.

Last week, Pastor Silas Malafaia, one of the former president's closest advisors, was prevented from communicating with Bolsonaro after being subjected to precautionary measures imposed by Moares. He is now being investigated for alleged involvement in coercive crimes during the trial.

In March, the former president's third son, Federal Deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), left Brazil to live in the United States, where he is working to impose sanctions against the Supreme Court alongside the White House, and is considering never returning. Communications journalist Paulo Figueiredo, Eduardo's right-hand man abroad, is a defendant in the case investigating the coup attempt and is also unlikely to return to Brazil anytime soon.

Wajngarten's removal is considered critical by people close to the former president, because he was responsible for keeping Bolsonaro exposed in the media, building bridges with media outlets and organizing interviews, conversations and opinion pieces on behalf of his ally.

Malafaia has been the main organizer of street demonstrations in favor of Bolsonaro — this year there were five, between São Paulo, Rio and Brasília, which brought together a total of 117,200 people, according to a survey by researchers at USP.

Interlocutors from this group, which works to strengthen Eduardo's position as his father's successor as president, complain that those with access to Bolsonaro now do little to defend his image. Criticism is directed primarily at Michelle and PL leaders.

Bolsonaro has been spending his days at the Solar de Brasília condominium in the Jardim Botânico neighborhood with Michelle and his trusted associates, including his brother Eduardo Torres. This Tuesday morning, the 26th, his other brother, Diego Torres, a special advisor in Tarcísio's office, took advantage of the governor's visit to the federal capital—and the family's unrestricted access to the former president granted by the courts—to visit him.

At least one of Bolsonaro's visits caused some unrest. Michelle even contradicted Congressman Luciano Zucco (PL-RS) after he claimed in a video that he would host a barbecue during his visit to the former president. Zucco is one of the leaders of Bolsonaro's shock troops in the Chamber of Deputies.

"I ask for the collaboration of future authorized visitors to understand and respect the sensitivity of the moment, refraining from actions that could distort the purpose of the visit or harm the image of President Jair Bolsonaro," the former first lady said in a statement.

Two recent incidents have angered Bolsonaro supporters, who are demanding a more emphatic defense from the PL regarding their most popular leader. After Bolsonaro was ordered under house arrest, Valdemar published a short statement stating:" I AM UNHAPPY!!!!! WHAT ELSE CAN I SAY? ." The demonstration infuriated lawmakers, who had expected a more emphatic defense of the former president and criticism of Moraes.

Last week, two more of Valdemar's missteps became the talk of the town in pro-Bolsonaro groups. He said that Tarcísio would join the PL if he runs for president in 2026 and compared Bolsonaro to the revolutionary leader Che Guevara. The outcry was so intense that he had to explain himself.

Bolsonaro's sons and his former allies have the perception that, while the former president is imprisoned and almost incommunicado, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), the leaders of the Centrão and market agents have been moving to leave the governor of São Paulo well positioned on the starting grid for the 2026 election.

An event held on Monday night, the 25th, in Brasília, reinforced this sentiment. At the Republicanos party's 20th anniversary celebration, national president Marcos Pereira raised Tarcísio's profile by suggesting, before an audience of thousands of people and leaders from the PL, MDB, and PSD, that the governor could be the party's candidate for the presidency next year .

Tarcísio, in turn, delivered a speech addressing national issues. From the stage, he criticized the Lula administration, made gestures toward conservatives and business leaders, and advocated for the eventual approval of amnesty in Congress, without, however, using that term—he spoke of"pacification" via the legislature.

On Monday, councilman Carlos Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) complained about an electoral survey conducted by Paraná Pesquisas with scenarios for 2026 in which Eduardo's name was not included — as yet another sign of distrust regarding movements behind the family's back.

Eduardo, in turn, published a post criticizing the maneuvers he sees as pro-Tarcísio. He believes that"the closer Bolsonaro's trial gets, the more people are talking about replacing him in the presidential race."

The twists and turns of July 15th

Eduardo Bolsonaro's insult to his father, in an exchange of messages on July 15 exposed by the Federal Police (PF), preceded a rapprochement with Pastor Silas Malafaia who has helped the family to unify their discourse in defense of the former president.

The announcement made in early July by US President Donald Trump that his administration would impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian products helped to set fire to Bolsonaro supporters. This is because Eduardo, one of the architects of the sanctions against Brazil, had been arguing that only a"broad, general, and unrestricted" amnesty in the National Congress would be the solution to dealing with the taxes, while Tarcísio began trying to resolve the crisis through negotiations with the US Embassy.

The clash between Eduardo and Tarcísio became public and prompted a task force between Valdemar and Senators Rogério Marinho (PL-RN) and Ciro Nogueira (PP-PI), who met on July 15 to discuss how to put out the fire. They then called on Jair Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro, a PL senator from Rio, to mediate a peace settlement between the two.

In his 4 p.m. interview with the website Poder360, Bolsonaro already echoed the appeal made by his allies. He said that his son"is not in favor of the measure here in Brazil" and that "no one is thrilled about the taxation." He also stated that everything was settled between Eduardo and Tarcísio, and that his son"is not as mature or cut out for politics."

The comment about maturity infuriated Eduardo, as reported by Estadão at the time. After the interview, the congressman wrote to his father:"I was going to leave Tarcísio's story aside, but thanks to the praise you gave me on Poder 360, I'm thinking of giving him a beating, to see if you learn. VTNC YOU UNGRATEFUL F......" The message, obtained from the seizure of the former president's cell phone, was revealed in the final report in which the Federal Police indicted father and son for coercion to prevent the trial of the coup.

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People close to the family report that, that afternoon, Eduardo called Wajngarten to complain about his father's interview, which downgraded his foreign influence and strengthened Tarcísio's position for 2026. The lawyer then contacted Malafaia, one of the few allies with influence over Bolsonaro, to try to defuse the crisis. The congressman and the pastor, who had been publicly criticizing the former president's son's actions, rekindled their relationship in a call attended by Wajngarten and Figueiredo.

At 6:39 p.m. that day, Malafaia sent an audio message to Bolsonaro, the content of which was exposed by the Federal Police:"President, I apologize. You could even defend Tarcívio. Now, you're going to burn your boy, no way. That's a strategic error, of the highest order. You shouldn't have hit the guy. Look at the work the guy is doing with authorities, speaking with Donald Trump's top advisors... You made a mistake, a big one."

The conversation prompted Bolsonaro to change his tone again regarding the roles of the federal deputy and the São Paulo governor in the crisis. In his interview with CNN Brasil that same night, the former president began defending Eduardo and criticizing Tarcísio, about whom he had said shortly before that he had no criticisms.

The episode, besides causing a shift in Bolsonaro's communication regarding Eduardo and Tarcísio, led to a new alliance with Malafaia. Although the pastor's messages criticizing Eduardo were exposed by the Federal Police, the congressman recorded a video expressing support for Malafaia, whom he sees as an ally in the plot against Tarcísio.