After the last captured airspace is returned, Israel will have to move to phase two - but there are quite a few disagreements on the agenda: Qatar and Turkey want to prevent Hamas from disarming, and Ankara is backed by elements in the Trump administration who want it to be present in the Strip. The composition of the international force is also far from being finalized. The main points that will be raised in the Netanyahu-Trump meeting
Itamar Eichner
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The second phase of the ceasefire plan in the Gaza Strip is still in the making, even among the Americans, and in reality nothing is really finalized yet. Israel and the US jointly created the original 20-point plan, which included a clear agreement that Hamas must be disarmed. However, Israel is now warning that Qatar and Turkey, which helped in the hostage release deal, are now working to dissuade Hamas from the idea of disarming.
The question of the second phase will perhaps be the main issue that will be placed on the table of the meeting between the Prime Minister and the
Benjamin Netanyahu
and the President of the United States
Donald Trump
, at the end of the month. Netanyahu is expected to stay at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate between December 28 and January 1, and at least two meetings with Trump are planned for him in these days, along with additional meetings with the Vice President.
J.D. Vance
, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hasseth.
"We have almost completed the first phase, we have one last hostage to return," Netanyahu said today in
Joint press conference with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
Later,
At another event
He said that "there are tasks that the international force that will be stationed in Gaza will not be able to do. In fact, the main thing (disarming Hamas - AA) it will not be able to do."
But until the last hostage is seated, the policeman, the
Ran Guili
(24), pressure from Qatar and Turkey is increasing towards the second phase. According to Israel, in order to prevent Israel from declaring that Hamas has been finally defeated, Qatar and Turkey are working to create a certain situation in which Hamas will remain in Gaza with weapons. In discussions with the Americans, the two raise various options, including Hamas handing over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority, or transferring the weapons to a warehouse under some kind of supervision. But the bottom line is to avoid a situation in which Hamas hands over its weapons and in effect disintegrates from its role as an influential factor in Gaza.
From its perspective, Israel insists that Hamas not have weapons, and the assessment in Israel is that the issue will only be decided in Netanyahu's meeting with Trump.
3 Viewing the gallery
Netanyahu, Trump, Al-Thani and Erdogan. Dispute over the timetable for disarming Hamas (Photo: Bashar TALEB / AFP, Ludovic MARIN / AFP, Alex Kolomoisky, AP Photo/Alex Brandon, AFP PHOTO / TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE / HANDOUT)
There is also disagreement regarding the timetable for disarming Hamas: Qatar and Turkey are proposing a two-year window in which Hamas can continue to possess weapons, while Israel is strongly opposed and insists on a few months. The Israeli message to the Americans is that if Hamas is not disarmed, Israel will step in and disarm it.
When Israel demands disarmament, it means complete disarmament. The Americans talk about decommissioning. Decommissioning was the term used for the disarmament of the Irish IRA, in which the Irish handed over their weapons or transferred them to a warehouse supervised by the British. Decommissioning means that Hamas has no weapons and they are transferring them to storage, but Israel is concerned that this is an exercise and wants to make sure that Hamas will retain access to weapons – and then it is not disarmament.
Softening in favor of the authority
Israel also strongly opposes a Turkish presence in the Gaza Strip. There are elements in the American administration, such as President Trump's envoy, Tom Barak, who insist that Turkey must be part of the solution in Gaza and must be present there. Barak also insists on Turkish involvement in Syria, contrary to Israel's opinion. In Jerusalem, they say - Barak is a factor who does not see Israel's needs.
At the same time, the Americans are also having difficulty assembling the Gaza Stabilization Force, the ISF. As long as there is no agreement on how Hamas will be disarmed and on what schedule, there is no willingness on the part of Arab and Muslim countries to commit to sending troops.
The US wants to start a pilot. Rafah (Photo: Ron Krisi)
One point where Israel has actually softened a bit is its opposition to including the Palestinian Authority in the reconstruction of Gaza. Israel has made it clear that if it were another entity that was in the Palestinian Authority and was free of terrorism, such as Salem Fayed at the time – and one that does not receive instructions from PA officials, it would be more open to including it with the international forces. However, Netanyahu has a political problem with including PA officials in the reconstruction of Gaza, with the understanding that this would encounter strong opposition from ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
In terms of rebuilding the Gaza Strip, the Americans want to start with a pilot in Rafah, which will begin with clearing the rubble and building a model for a city free of Hamas. Israel has made it clear that from its perspective, this can be done in conjunction with disarming Hamas, but not at the expense of dealing with it. Israel is presenting the Lebanese model: It is possible to talk to the Lebanese government about civil issues, but this is not a substitute for disarming Hezbollah and does not negate the security need to deal with them.
In Israel, it is estimated that about 75% of Gaza residents are no longer willing to tolerate Hamas and want something else, while 25% are Hamas, and a model neighborhood will not attract them. Israel supports the American plan to create a place within the yellow area in Rafah, which will constitute an alternative to Hamas. From Israel's perspective, this is part of the plan to weaken Hamas, but it insists that this will not be at the expense of dismantling it.
But it's not just the second phase of the Gaza deal that will come up in the Trump-Netanyahu meetings. There are quite a few other complex issues. For example, in the months leading up to the operation
With a dog
There were many reports that the US would not let Israel attack Iran. But at the time, the US military and the IDF were deeply involved in the plans, and in the end, there was cooperation the likes of which had never existed between the countries.
"Trying to replace Iran as the most hostile to Israel." Erdogan (Photo: Adem ALTAN / AFP)
There are different approaches within the American administration, and the Americans need to dance a double tango - on the one hand with Israel and on the other with the Turks and Qatar. But ultimately, according to Vice President Vance, Israel is the model of an ally -"the most senior partner of the United States." He does not call Turkey or Qatar that. The understanding in Israel is that despite the disagreements, the United States will not ultimately endanger Israel's security. If Israel determines that there will be no jihadists on the border, whether in Gaza or the Golan Heights - the Americans will accept that.
To tighten sanctions
Israel is also strongly opposed to the sale of F-35 aircraft to Turkey. Its message to the Americans is that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is trying to replace Iran as the most hostile factor to Israel. Erdogan recently hosted a conference of imams in Istanbul who called for the destruction of Israel, and also spoke there. The money that goes to Hezbollah and Hamas is Iranian money that passes through Istanbul, and Erdogan can stop it but doesn't want to. In practice, Erdogan's behavior works against the interests of the United States, and Israel is explaining this to the Americans: How can the United States, on the one hand, outlaw the Muslim Brotherhood, when a NATO member supports and belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood itself?
The question of Iran will also occupy a significant part of the planned meetings. Israel will present the Americans with information according to which Iran is striving to restart its nuclear program, as well as the ballistic missiles that the Iranians are putting into high gear. The Americans are imposing economic sanctions on Iran, but in Israel's opinion they are not enough and it will ask for harsher sanctions.
