Putin came out of that meeting strengthened and convinced that he had once again outwitted his American colleague. He thus received another signal of the West's weakness. After the failed summit in Alaska on August 15, the pattern of even more intense Russian military activity in Ukraine, especially in Kyiv, continued. The incident involving nineteen Russian drones in Polish airspace, which led to the temporary closure of four airports, confirms that it was not an accident.
The war that has been ravaging Ukraine for more than three years has become a direct security threat to a NATO member. It is a continuation of Putin's strategy: testing the resolve of the Alliance, political bluffing and using the war in Ukraine as a training ground to spread fear across Europe.
Particularly emboldened by the treatment accorded him by Chinese President Xi Jinping last month at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, Putin decided to test Europe, NATO and the US. The fact that Russia's kinetic attack on Poland came shortly after Putin met with Xi and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Shanghai should not be ignored.
Putin has long combined hybrid methods with direct military actions. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius made it clear that the trajectories of the drones were not accidental. And Polish Foreign Minister Radoslav Sikorski persistently warns that Moscow's threats must be taken deadly seriously.
After Alaska, Putin is obviously counting on two things: Europe's war-weariness and American vacillation. Washington is directing more and more attention to the Pacific, while in Europe there is a feeling of exhaustion. In this vacuum, Moscow is trying to show that NATO is not ready to react unitedly and decisively. Every crack in the Alliance, every doubt about the political will of the US to stay in Europe, is a strategic victory for Putin. That is why the drone invasion of Poland is much more than a tactical maneuver. That's red line testing. At the same time, Putin thereby humiliates Trump, who repeatedly threatens sanctions, and then gives up.
The Kremlin makes it clear that it does not believe in negotiations or lasting peace. The goal is the complete capitulation of Ukraine and the erosion of the security order in Europe.
It should be noted that NATO reacted promptly: fighter jets were raised,"patriot" systems were activated, and London announced that it was fully committed to strengthening the defense of the eastern wing of Europe. All that, however, is not enough and does not solve the problem.
If the Alliance remains on the defensive, any subsequent provocation will become normal. Moscow seems to be spreading the war quietly, capillarically, without a formal announcement, but with increasing consequences for European security. Europe cannot understand that this is no longer just a question of solidarity with Ukraine, but a question of the survival of its security. Every time the citizens of Warsaw, Tallinn, Vilnius, Bucharest, Riga or Helsinki think they could be next, Russia achieves the goal. Moscow moves the red lines and enjoys the weakness of its opponents.
