According to B. Cilley, we are used to nuclear threats from the Russian leadership, but now the US president has publicly responded to them, stating that he has ordered the deployment of two nuclear submarines in"appropriate areas."

The British politician believes that Trump is angry that his policy of appeasing the Kremlin has not worked and is beginning to understand the Russian regime - which is a positive thing.

"It's less good that Trump openly admits that he is responding directly to Medvedev's nuclear threats. Now the Russian regime knows that it can provoke the US president to take real action if it annoys him enough online," Cilley noted.

He said the Kremlin has been studying the motivations of Western leaders for years and has a good understanding of their behavior. The danger comes from the fact that nuclear policy, an area where experts usually weigh every word because of its particular danger, has become part of online"slander."

While the likelihood of Putin using nuclear weapons is low, it is not zero, warns Cilley.

Since 2005, when the dictator began exerting political and military pressure on Ukraine with the aim of eventually annexing it, he has escalated the conflict every time he fails to achieve his goal.

“This was the case in 2014, during the partial invasion of eastern Ukraine, and then in 2022, during a full-scale offensive. Will the conflict escalate again – this time using nuclear weapons?” the analyst wondered.

He noted that there is active discussion in Russia about the so-called"escalation for the sake of de-escalation" doctrine, according to which nuclear weapons can be used to control a conflict and force the enemy to surrender.

According to the politician, the first step could be a"demonstration strike," for example, in water. The next step would be an attack on a deserted site on land.

A third strike could be directed at a military target, such as a transportation hub, followed by a series of tactical nuclear strikes within the theater of operations, writes Cilley.

He recalled that Putin is gradually reducing the requirements for the use of nuclear weapons. In 2014, Russia's military doctrine allowed only two cases when they were allowed to be used - in response to a nuclear strike or in the event of a threat to Russia's existence.

However, the 2020 document also allowed a nuclear attack if Russia was threatened with an “imminent nuclear strike” – a preemptive strike – or if it lost control of its weapons arsenal, for example due to numerous precision strikes with conventional weapons.

And last year, Putin again lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, stating that a conventional missile strike on Russia could also be a reason for a nuclear response.

At the same time, he noted that Ukraine's Operation"Spider Web" against Russian airports in June did not provoke such a reaction.

"Putin's regime is ready for war - there can be no illusions here. He does not want peace. I am in Kyiv this week, where I am presenting my book about Russia's new war, and the city is constantly under missile attacks, sometimes long-term. Putin is leading Trump by the nose," he said.

In his opinion, the best Western strategy would be to support Ukraine, especially its air defense, so that it can stop Russia on the battlefield and even force Putin to end the war.

"Because most of the alternatives are even worse," the politician summed up.