Israel and the United States have reached a ceasefire with Iran. Or have they not? After all, Iran is firing, and it is possible that Israel will too. The war that Donald Trump said lasted only 12 days may not be over, and neither America nor the world may get away with it so cheaply.

However, it is now clear that Iran cannot wage war in its current state. It may never be revealed how close they actually were to having a nuclear weapon. But based on the Fordow images, it is not impossible that something was rescued from the labs bombed by the Americans. And that something could be anywhere by now – meaning that Iran is not certain that it will or wants to give up on its nuclear dreams.

Could the Iranian dictatorship collapse? What does the United States want in the Middle East? And what is Russia going to do, whose many proxies will weaken against the West within a year? Béla Mihály Kacskovics asked Imre Keresztes, a journalist for the HVG Világ column.