Fux's vote undermines Moraes' hegemony and opens the door for a review of Bolsonaro's sentence

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The vote Luiz Fux freeing the main defendants in the coup plot from prison does not change the First Chamber's tendency to convict the group, but it does have two consequences. The first is to open a window for Jair Bolsonaro's defense to try to overturn the sentence in the future, when the country's political landscape changes. The second is to undermine the sovereignty of Alexandre de Moraes , the case's rapporteur.

It's not uncommon for the Supreme Federal Court (STF) to change its mind over time. For example, at the height of Operation Car Wash, the court endorsed the decisions of then-judge Sérgio Moro. It changed its mind after messages exchanged between Moro and Deltan Dallagnol, who was leading the investigation, were released. Lula was released from prison and allowed to run for election.

With Fux's help, Bolsonaro may dream up a similar plot. During the trial on the attempted coup, the minister embraced several of the lawyers' arguments. He argued for the complete nullity of the case, arguing that the case should be kept out of the Supreme Court, since no one under investigation currently holds public office.

In more than ten hours of voting, Fux asserted that January 8th was not an attempted coup, but rather the act of a"disorderly mob." He emphasized that Bolsonaro had no involvement in the bankruptcy, much less planned a coup."One thing is one thing, another is another thing," he explained.

The minister leaves a trail for lawyers to follow in the future. While there is currently no climate in Brazil for amnesty or review of the sentences handed down to the coup plotters, everything could change if the right-wing wins at the polls.

The vote also challenges Moraes's hegemony in the Supreme Court. In practice, the conviction would have the same effect if handed down unanimously, or by a four-to-one vote. However, if all five justices voted in the same direction, the decision would have greater political force: it would reveal a court united in its fight against coup plotting.

With one vote counted for Bolsonaro supporters, the former president's allies renewed their ammunition against Moraes. Even before Fux had finished voting, the former president's allies were posting excerpts of the minister's speech on social media. Michele Bolsonaro was among the first to do so.

Dallagnol also celebrated. He took the opportunity to resurrect a catchphrase from the past decade in a post:"In Fux we trust." The phrase was reportedly coined by Moro in a message to Dallagnol. The two were discussing the support the minister had allegedly promised to the Curitiba gang.

The other members of the First Chamber were visibly uncomfortable during Fux's vote. They respected their colleague's request not to be interrupted. In a silent protest, they kept their microphones low and their gazes fixed, while Fux's voice filled the chamber, declaring that Bolsonaro had not attempted a coup.