The European Commission maintains its faith in negotiation and an agreed-upon solution to the trade war initiated by US President Donald Trump. At least, apparently. And despite threats and snubs coming from Washington, Brussels wants to pursue all options to reach an agreement. To that end, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced this Sunday her intention to extend the suspension of the first response that the European Union approved against the United States in April, which was subsequently suspended for negotiations until at least the end of the new deadline set by President Donald Trump: August 1.

This Sunday, Von der Leyen had a meeting in Brussels with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto. On Saturday, Von der Leyen had received a letter from Trump announcing 30% tariffs if there is no solution to the war he himself has started before August 1. The meeting with the Indonesian leader can be seen as a staging of part of the strategy the Commission wants to pursue to confront Trumpist protectionism. Both leaders have presented an economic partnership agreement, which they have called CEPA, which is basically a further step toward achieving a free trade agreement with this populous Southeast Asian country. In other words, Brussels is expanding trade alliances to diversify its exports.

There are two other legs to the EU strategy. One is the direct response to the US. This is where we must include the package suspended in April and which will remain in place until the end of the month. It consists of imposing tariffs on a list of products imported from the other side of the Atlantic worth around €20 billion in response to the 25% tariff increase Trump decreed in March on steel and aluminum, which is already in effect. In the same leg, we must include an additional list—originally €90 billion, although this has been reduced after public consultation—which has not yet received the blessing of the EU-27.

Doubts on the horizon

Both steps—plus any that may be added: French President Emmanuel Macron called on Saturday for consideration of using the anti-coercion mechanism—would, in theory, be activated if the talks fail. The question, if that scenario materializes, is how far the hostilities would escalate. Trump warns in his letter that any tariff increase as punishment for his unilateral decision will mean a parallel increase in addition to the 30% he has announced. That is, if the EU decides to proportionally raise its tariffs on the United States by 30%, Washington, for its part, will raise them again to 60%.