A new regional war that broke out late last week appears to have spiraled into a vicious cycle after Iran responded to Israeli strikes by launching a barrage of missiles at Israeli cities and economic hubs. In response, Israeli warplanes have attacked Tehran and facilities related to its nuclear program.
This time, the guest of the Talk was Tárik Meszár, senior researcher at the MCC Migration Research Institute, with whom we started with the timing, i.e. why Israel felt the need to attack Iran right now.
The analyst said that while the official reason for the Israeli attack was Iran's advanced nuclear weapons program, the reality is more nuanced."An investigation by the International Atomic Energy Agency found that this program is so advanced that it is really, really a matter of weeks, for them to actually have a nuclear weapon."
However, Israel alone cannot completely destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program."Without the help of the United States, this is impossible because we don't have the B2 and B52 bombers and bombs that can penetrate the earth to very great depths."
America and Donald Trump's dilemma
“This is a particularly delicate situation for the Donald Trump administration. Trump really doesn’t want to get into this war, it’s very apparent,” the researcher said. The Republican president’s campaign promise is to drag the United States into another, never-ending war in the Middle East.
At the same time, America could easily be drawn into the conflict, all it takes is for an American citizen to die in an Iranian missile attack. Then the president must act, because if he doesn't, he will simply lose enough votes to cost him the presidency.
We also looked at how long Iran could withstand the attack militarily. Surprisingly, the two countries' forces are almost equivalent on paper: if we look at the comparisons, Israel has the 15th strongest army in the world, and Iran has the 16th. Of course, they have different strengths. Israel's advantage is its excellent air defense and precision strike capability. Iran's strength is its ballistic missile program, as they have ballistic missiles that can fly 2,500 kilometers, but they have not yet been deployed. They have significant stocks, the Islamic Republic probably has more than 2,000 missiles.
At the same time, while the Israelis have tried to limit themselves to bombing nuclear program facilities and military bases, Iran has indiscriminately attacked civilian and military targets.
What can Iran do if it can't handle Israel?
One of the most dangerous aspects of the conflict is the impact on energy supplies. For the first time, Israel attacked a major gas field in Iran, which took the war to a new dimension.
Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz in response, which would have catastrophic consequences, as the Persian Gulf is the route through which a fifth of the world's oil tankers pass. There is an additional danger if the Houthis join in, as they have previously attacked several commercial ships in the Red Sea. If both straits are closed, supply chains will be virtually disrupted, which could push the price of oil above $100 per barrel within days and, if shipping is disrupted, it will increase global inflation.
Can the Iranian regime fall?
According to Tárik Meszár, there are several possible answers. One is that the collapse of a centralized power would create a power vacuum in the Persian state, similar to what happened in Iraq or Libya – with civil war and chaos. But it is also possible that the Revolutionary Guard could somehow manage the situation, albeit with extreme severity.
With the potential for chaos, the question arose as to whether, if this regional conflict escalates, we have entered the antechamber of World War III. According to the expert, “we are not there yet, but there are very ominous signs that point in that direction.” That is precisely why Donald Trump is trying to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, “because if more and more wars start, then we will really end up talking about World War III.”
The program also discussed that
