The Netherlands experienced an election night full of surprises after parliamentary elections produced an unexpectedly close contest between two opposing forces – the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders and the centrist liberal Democrats 66 (D66) party led by 38-year-old Rob Yetten. With more than 98 percent of the ballots counted, both parties have 26 seats in the 150-member parliament, separated by just over 2,000 votes. Final results are expected to be confirmed in a few days.

The rise of Rob Yetten and D66

Few predicted such a success for D66. Polls had predicted around 17 seats, but Yetten's performance in the final TV debates, days before the election, clearly swayed wavering voters. Wilders had suspended his campaign due to a terrorist threat, allowing Yetten to dominate the media with his positive and unifying message. His call for a"constructive coalition" and the slogan "Het kan wel" ("It is possible") appealed to voters tired of divisive politics.

This is D66's best performance since its founding in 1966."Millions of Dutch people have turned the page on negativity and chosen forward-looking politics," Yetten told supporters in Leiden.

The collapse of the center-left and the withdrawal of Timmermans

The Greens-Labour coalition (GroenLinks–PvdA), led by former European Commissioner Frans Timmermans, suffered a heavy defeat, falling to fourth place after being second in 2023. The alliance lost five seats, and Timmermans announced his resignation on election night: “I failed to convince people to vote for us and I take full responsibility,” he said with visible disappointment.

A blow to Wilders and the far right

For Geert Wilders, election night was far from the expected victory. His"Party for Freedom" lost seven seats compared to the previous election and is unlikely to be able to form a government. Although it remains among the largest parties, its potential partners have already said that they will not work with it, making the formation of a majority practically impossible."We were hoping for a different result," Wilders wrote in X."We remain combative and continue to be among the largest parties."

While the PVV is losing ground, other far-right movements are gaining ground. The JA21 party has increased from one to eight seats, and the Forum for Democracy (FvD) from three to seven, showing that the nationalist vote remains strong, if fragmented. Analysts estimate that nearly a third of Wilders' previous voters have switched to JA21 this time.

What the result means for Europe

The election could reshape the Netherlands’ position within the European Union. Incumbent Prime Minister Dick Schoof, a technocrat without party support, had limited influence in Brussels compared with his predecessor, Mark Rutte, who is now NATO secretary general. If Mr. Jetten can form a government, his pro-European stance could restore the country’s leading role in EU decision-making.

As a member of the liberal European family of Renew Europe, Jeten is likely to promote closer cooperation on issues such as climate, defense and migration, following Rutte's pragmatic style of governance.

The difficult road to a coalition

Forming a cabinet will be difficult. A majority requires 76 seats, and no single bloc can secure them without compromise. The center-right VVD party, now led by Dylan Yesilgöz and expected to win 22 seats, is seen as the decisive factor. Although it loses only two seats, its role will be key to whether the Netherlands moves towards a centrist coalition or a looser union, leaning to the left or right.

Other parties fared poorly. The conservative NSC and the agrarian BBB suffered heavy losses, with the NSC even disappearing from parliament altogether. Analysts say voters are punishing them for their role in the previous government, which collapsed in June over immigration policy.

In 2023, coalition negotiations lasted six months, and observers warn that such a blockade could again weaken the Netherlands' position in European negotiations.

Who is Rob Yetten?

If he becomes prime minister, Rob Yetten will be the youngest prime minister in the history of the Netherlands. Once mocked as “Robot Yetten” for his mechanical way of speaking, he has now become a charismatic leader. As climate minister in Rutte’s cabinet, he is building an image based on optimism, renewable energy, housing and healthcare reforms.

His campaign promises include building 10 new towns and speeding up construction by removing bureaucratic hurdles, with a goal of 100,000 new homes a year. On migration, he proposes allowing asylum applications to be submitted outside the EU and increasing investment in integration programs.

Yeten's personal life has also attracted attention. Born in the southern province of Brabant, he is set to marry his Argentine fiancé, international field hockey player Nicolas Keenan, next year.

Winners and losers

The election produced D66 and its young leader as the biggest winners, marking an unexpected turn in Dutch politics. The VVD's modest losses put it in a position of stabilising factor, while Christian Democrat Henri Bontenbal revived his CDA party with 18 seats, banking on a message of"honest politics".

Among the losers are the Left Alliance and the Socialist Party, whose poor results cast doubt on the future of the Dutch left as a significant political force.

Wilders, though weakened, remains a central figure. The loss does not destroy his influence, but rather disperses it among smaller far-right formations. “This is just the beginning,” he warned after the election.

For now, the Netherlands faces a new long coalition saga and an uncertain political future, in which the clash between optimism and populism continues.