Naval drones targeted a large floating oil pumping platform on November 28, 5 kilometers from the port of Novorossiysk, home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet.

The object damaged by the drones is a so-called single-point tanker mooring buoy: it is an offshore solution for pumping oil into tankers. There are three such platforms in Novorossiysk. Repair work is already underway on one. Experts say that the attack by naval drones has seriously damaged the port's oil handling capabilities.

"Each such floating loading platform can load 800,000 barrels of oil per day. The scale of operations will now be reduced to one-third of its previous volume," Vladas Paddackas, an expert at the political intelligence firm Nightingale Intelligence, told RFE/RL.

This is bad news for Russia, which relies on the platform for oil from the North Caucasus. But it is even worse news for Kazakhstan, which exports 80 percent of its oil to Novosibirsk through a single pipeline.

"Kazakhstan has found itself in an unenviable situation - it has one main oil export route that runs through one country - Russia," Dimash Alzhanov, a political expert on the country, told RFE/RL's Kazakhstan service, adding that now"the country has become a hostage to political decisions made many years ago."

Strategic vulnerability

The pipeline operator, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), did not respond to RFE/RL's request for comment on the aftermath of the naval drone attack, which it immediately condemned as a"deliberate terrorist attack."

According to Sergey Vakulenko, an analyst at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, a non-governmental organization, oil sales abroad account for 40 percent of Kazakhstan's total export revenue.

The Kazakh government has lodged an official protest with Ukraine over what it calls"the third act of aggression against exclusively civilian infrastructure." This year, a drone has already damaged a Caspian Pipeline Consortium pumping station in Russia's Krasnodar region, followed by an attack on the consortium's office in Novorossiysk.

Ukraine's response to Kazakhstan's complaint was extremely harsh.

Emphasizing that the country's armed forces"systematically weaken the aggressor's military and industrial potential," Ukraine draws attention to "the lack of previous reactions by Kazakhstan in condemning the Russian Federation's attacks on civilians in Ukraine."

As diplomatic disagreements only spread, Kazakhstan is facing a very serious problem.

"Two such new platforms in Dubai are almost complete, but they will not be operational very soon: delivery, installation and all necessary permits will take at least several months. Considering that supply is already disrupted, the three platforms will not be operating at full capacity until the summer or autumn of 2026," says V. Paddackas.

"Such a modern single-point tanker mooring buoy, similar to those owned by the Caspian Oil Pipeline Consortium, could cost between $80 and $120 million, which means that replacing one with a new one in the event of loss would be a very large and heavy financial burden," the expert added.

Moreover, even when the platform is repaired or replaced with a new one, Ukraine may resort to it again. Only Kazakhstan's dependence on European markets is only part of the bigger picture. Everything is far from as simple as it might seem at first glance.

Unexpected consequences

Joe Webster, an expert at the Atlantic Council think tank, told RFE/RL that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's oil blend is"light and low in sulfur" - ideal for fuel production.

"Kazakhstan is the European Union's third largest oil partner, after the United States and Norway. Approximately one in nine imported petroleum products or barrels of oil comes from Kazakhstan," he says.

In other words, without Kazakh oil, Europe will face even deeper problems replacing Russian supplies, which had to be drastically reduced due to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

"To be honest, I'm worried that the problems with the Caspian pipeline consortium could affect Europe. Europe will be hit even harder than Russia. So I think it's fair to question whether such attacks are actually so strategically justified," Webster added.

S. Vakulenka from the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center echoes her colleague and also mentions the unexpected side effects of Ukraine's actions.

Although the greatest damage, as expected, is done to Russian exports, by leaving the market without Kazakh oil in this way,"India, China and Turkey will prefer to buy Russian oil" - even at a higher price than now, the analyst says.

Another important aspect in this context is the Western involvement in the Kazakh oil industry, which has benefited greatly from investments by companies such as Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, and others. It is important to note that Chevron currently owns 15 percent of the shares of the Kazakhstan Oil Pipeline Consortium.

It is very possible that in this case, the only hope for Kazakhstan to continue exporting oil to Russia through the Kazakhstan Oil Pipeline Consortium pipeline is pressure from Western countries on Kyiv to refrain from such attacks in the future.

There are few alternatives.

Kazakhstan's vulnerability has prompted renewed discussions about whether the country could diversify its export routes.

The second largest route for Kazakhstan's oil exports is by tanker across the Caspian Sea to Baku in Azerbaijan. From there, the BTC pipeline runs through Georgia to Ceyhan on Turkey's Mediterranean coast.

In 2024, 1.5 million tons of oil were pumped through the BTC. For comparison: 63 million tons through the pipelines of the Caspian Oil Pipeline Consortium. The limited number of tankers in the Caspian Sea and the capacity of the pipeline itself are preventing any change in the situation, and the BTC route is also significantly more expensive.

Kazakhstan also exports oil to European markets via the Druzhba pipeline, which runs through Russia and Belarus. The latter has also been hit by Ukrainian drone attacks.

So, should Kazakhstan look to the East?

World Bank data for 2023 shows that Kazakhstan exported oil worth $3.81 billion to China and $23.6 billion to Europe. As it was not there, reorienting itself to the market of its large, prosperous neighbor would not be an easy task.

"I don't think the demand in Xinjiang, western China, is enough to absorb all those barrels," Webster said.

Furthermore, a pipeline to the east coast of China, where demand is greatest, would unfortunately be too expensive.

"I don't know why Chinese oil companies would consider such an option. So the likelihood of Kazakhstan diverting oil from Europe to China is very slim," Webster said.