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Analysis: Putin fails to take Ukraine by force. He tries to win it at the negotiating table

Wednesday, August 20


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The Russian president is demanding a firm guarantee that Ukraine will not be accepted into NATO, which would amount to an assurance that it can return for new territories later.

British defense intelligence estimated Tuesday that at the current rate, Putin’s forces would need more than four years and nearly two million more casualties, dead or wounded, to take these regions by force. That’s on top of the more than one million casualties Russia has already suffered, including 250,000 soldiers killed or missing, presumed dead. To meet his battlefield demands, Putin would have to subject Russia to twice as much suffering as it has so far, while also risking internal revolt.

Such a bold and, in other circumstances, unrealistic set of demands shows that Putin, a former KGB agent and experienced negotiator, believes he can outsmart President Donald Trump, writes Colonel Tim Collins, a former British army officer.

History shows that this war of aggression, part of Putin's larger ambitions to restore the old Russian empire and dominate Europe, can only be ended by a defeat of Russia that leads to real deterrence. But that is not what is being negotiated now.

The future defeat of the West, which could result from an unfair peace agreement, would not mean a repeat of the Holocaust, but the emergence of a Russia-dominated Europe. The most threatened would be the young protesters on campuses and in the streets, as well as the LGBTQ+ community, which would disappear completely.

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