analysis

When US President Trump and Russian leader Putin confer in Alaska, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will be left with only a spectator role. There is great concern in Ukraine about being ignored in the negotiations.

This week, the fate of Ukraine is being discussed. In Alaska, thousands of kilometers away – and without Ukrainian involvement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is powerless. Europe's leading heads of state and government are no different.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and other participants are already considering the joint video conference with US President Donald Trump ahead of the Alaska meeting a diplomatic success. But whether this meeting was truly a success will only be determined this weekend.

It is Russian leader Vladimir Putin whom Trump is bringing onto the political stage for a personal meeting on Friday. Putin, against whom the International Criminal Court in The Hague has issued an arrest warrant for alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Of all people, it is a US president who is bringing Putin out of isolation and giving him pictures of him together for his own propaganda.

Doubts about Trump's reliability

This meeting is causing considerable nervousness in Ukraine. This is primarily due to Putin. Since 2014, Russia has been waging war against Ukraine on his orders, with the aim of weakening, dividing, and controlling the country.

For years, Ukrainians have been oppressed, tortured, and murdered in the Russian-occupied territories. Children are kidnapped and given up for adoption in Russia. People are forced to flee their homeland to escape all this.

Many in Ukraine are convinced that the world's largest country is not concerned with territory, but rather with restoring imperial greatness. The annihilation of independent Ukraine is a step on that path.

The second cause for concern is host Trump. He makes no secret of the fact that he isn't interested in justice, borders, or international law. The US president is banking on deals and a quick peace – to get closer to his big dream of winning the Nobel Peace Prize.

But he may also be interested in resuming economic relations between the United States and Russia. His fickle course so far has caused more than just President Zelensky to doubt Trump's reliability.

Ukraine under massive pressure

While Ukraine has been declaring its readiness for an unconditional ceasefire for months, Russia is refusing to accept these proposals. While Ukrainian President Zelenskyy is willing to negotiate directly with Russia's rulers, Putin is avoiding direct dialogue.

And yet, it was repeatedly the attacked Ukraine that fell out of favor with Trump and became the perpetrator. Vital aid was suspended on several occasions. Trump repeatedly allowed ultimatums issued to the Russian side to expire without implementing the threatened punitive measures.

Russia advances and kills more civilians than ever before

All this has weakened Ukraine and strengthened Russia. The Russian army is advancing on several fronts, the pace is increasing, and breakthroughs are being made. While Ukraine is also successfully conducting drone attacks on military bases, defense factories, and oil refineries in Russia, the suffering of its own civilian population is growing.

According to a UN report, Russian attacks on Ukrainian-controlled areas in July killed more civilians than in any other month since the war began. This is one of the reasons why more and more families are being forced to consider fleeing to other European countries.

Without stronger military support for Ukraine and greater economic pressure on Russia, the situation for the attacked country is likely to continue to deteriorate. Donald Trump can decisively influence the future of the European peace and security order—both positively and negatively.

Russia sanctions or Putin deal?

Ukraine is prepared to freeze the war along the existing front line and negotiate with Russia – including on territorial issues. However, it will not hand over parts of its own territory to Russia as a precondition. The Ukrainian president made this clear this week, citing international law and its own constitution. Legal recognition of Russian occupations therefore remains out of the question.

The crucial question now is: What will Trump do if Putin continues to block a ceasefire and serious peace talks with Zelensky?

Three conceivable scenarios

With sanctions, he could significantly increase the pressure on the Kremlin and thus also its willingness to engage in serious negotiations – such a scenario would strengthen Ukraine and Europe.

Should Putin, in turn, convince Trump of an economically lucrative deal and thus enforce Russia's maximum demands, this could once again lead to a reversal of the role of perpetrator and victim - a threatening scenario for Ukraine and the European continent.

It's also possible that Trump chooses neither path—that would mean a continuation of the war of attrition. The fact is: At this point, these scenarios are pure speculation. No one knows how the meeting will turn out.

Majority for negotiations and security guarantees

The developments on the front lines indicate that Russia intends to continue the war to achieve its own military goals. The Ukrainian state has no alternative but to continue defending itself.

A majority of Ukrainians want a serious negotiation process to begin soon. Representative surveys show that security guarantees from the US and Europe are seen as a decisive criterion.

Specifically, this means sustained support for the Ukrainian army, Western investment in the domestic arms industry, possible troop contingents from European partners, and the freedom to choose alliances. But also tough sanctions mechanisms designed to deter Russia from future attacks. These positions are also being advocated.