If São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas truly wants to be president, he's not rooting for an unrestricted amnesty for President Jair Bolsonaro. Quite the opposite. For a basic reason: in the unlikely event that Bolsonaro runs for the Planalto Palace, Tarcísio will be out of the running. Note: the governor isn't alone in this. Many of the former president's self-proclaimed allies—those shouting"Bolsonaro President 2026!"—feel the same way, but they'll never admit it outside of whispered conversations.
Today, on the float on Paulista Avenue, Tarcísio—who once again avoided the green and yellow of the national team's official jersey—had to make a move contrary to his ultimate goal."This party is not complete because Jair Messias Bolsonaro is not here with us," he said."There is only one candidate for us, and that is Jair Messias Bolsonaro," he stated shortly after. Finally, he attacked Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, calling him a tyrant.
But phrases like these, even if radical, are a necessary strategy for achieving this goal. Tarcísio knows he will only be a viable candidate if he remains loyal to Bolsonarism. If at any point the label of traitor is plastered on his forehead, he could lose the support of Bolsonarism's so-called hard-core base. There will always be discrepancies in numbers, but this is a combative, histrionic, politically strong movement, and, like no other, capable of bringing fanatical activists to the streets. Those who shouted"Moraes out" today, referring to Bolsonaro's tormentor, could shout"Tarcísio out" if skillfully manipulated.
With Tarcísio targeted within the right-wing camp, things are getting easier for President Lula to be reelected, even without any solid assets to show society. It's worth remembering that Bolsonaro's sons are always on the lookout and won't hesitate to call Judas those who don't exactly follow their personal and political agendas. Tarcísio knows it's never good to expect rationality and thoughtfulness among the Bolsonaro family members, especially the younger ones, now with the spectacular support of US President Donald Trump.
But the governor's strategy exacts a high price. Today, unwavering loyalty to Bolsonaro and appreciation for democracy are no longer compatible attributes. The first week of the president's trial revealed flaws in the prosecution and haste in the proceedings, but not enough to make Bolsonaro's life any easier. The former president is likely to be sentenced to prison. Therefore, attempting to pardon him could somehow minimize an attempted coup d'état. In fact, in his speech today, the governor of São Paulo, elected with 13.4 million votes, even insinuated that we do not live in a democratic state.
Tarcísio may be thinking in stages along his tortuous path. First, secure the support of the radical right-wing fringes of the electorate and, later, see what happens. Without Bolsonaro (or Michelle ) standing in the way, against Lula, he would quickly secure the support of the center-right—people who in recent decades have even voted for the"leftist" PSDB to prevent the Workers' Party from gaining power. The productive and financial sectors may even rhetorically support the democratic issue, but the pragmatism of a managing president would speak louder in favor of the governor of São Paulo.
What remains to be done is to win over the moderate, centrist, minority, but decisive—people who will reject anyone who proposes a pardon for Bolsonaro. Phrases like"no one can stand Moraes' tyranny anymore" may be a way to burn bridges with the institution. But these issues will be addressed later. Perhaps remember that the PT and Lula's commitment to democracy was never absolute—witness ambiguities on issues like the war in Ukraine or the Venezuelan elections."They robbed banks, committed terrorist attacks, and benefited from amnesty in the past," the governor stated, speaking on the float. There are political cards for Tarcísio to play to try to reverse the damage of supporting Bolsonaro's amnesty, even if it's an action he privately disagrees with because it hurts him personally. But Tarcísio is not alone.
