The image of Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi smilingly chatting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in Tianjin has gone viral. But behind the smiles lies a complex geopolitical equation that highlights China’s role as a leading power in the so-called Global South on the one hand, and Russia and India’s quest to manage pressure from the West on the other. The summit, the largest in the SCO’s history since 2002, attempts to challenge the dominance of Western institutions such as NATO and the WTO, in a climate of increasing geoeconomic insecurity.

Xi's attack on Cold War mentality

Xi Jinping called on member states to resist the Cold War mentality and all forms of bullying, proposing a new model of true multilateralism with the UN and the WTO as pillars. At the same time, he announced a support package of 2 billion yuan in free aid and 10 billion yuan in loans through the SCO banking consortium.

Vladimir Putin, for his part, attempted to reframe the three-year invasion of Ukraine, arguing that the conflict began with a Western-backed coup and NATO’s insistence on bringing Ukraine into its ranks. Despite heavy losses and the destruction of much of eastern Ukraine, Moscow continues to attempt to portray itself as a victim of geopolitical encirclement.

But other data emerged from the Eurasian summit, which this year’s expanded SCO turned into, especially from the statements of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi criticized the bullying behavior of other countries, while praising the development of the SCO, saying that they are building a new model of true multilateralism. Xi urged member states to further cooperate to leverage their magnificent markets to boost trade and investment, and said that China will provide 2 billion yuan ($280 million) in free assistance to member states this year and an additional 10 billion yuan in loans to an SCO banking consortium.

Among other things, he said that the SCO promotes inclusive economic globalization and that for this reason China will cooperate with all member countries on energy, green industry and the digital economy. He announced that a joint center of member countries will be built for the development of artificial intelligence, and countries will be invited to participate in the exploration of the Moon.

Beijing's strategy: Turning to the Global South and a message of stability

The Tianjin summit, which comes days after US President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports, is part of Beijing's strategy to draw Asian and Central Eurasian countries into a new platform for economic and political cooperation. Analysts say Trump's tariffs have offered China an opportunity to portray itself as a stable partner in contrast to the erratic US policy. The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, although often described as a security umbrella, avoids direct military involvement. However, its geographical weight is enormous: it represents almost half the world's population and aspires to become an energy and trade hub.

Indochinese approach with (many) reservations

Modi’s visit to China after seven years signaled a willingness to de-escalate, but it did not negate the long-standing tensions on the India-China border and the close cooperation between Beijing and Islamabad. The images of Modi and Putin’s friendly talks, as well as the backstage consultations with Xi, were seen as a message to Washington that New Delhi retains strategic options. India’s absence from the SCO military parade underlined the limits of the rapprochement.

The dragon and the elephant are not dancing yet; they are just looking at each other from a distance, commented former Indian ambassador to China Gautam Babawale.

The Russian-Chinese balance and the North Korea factor

The possibility of a three-way meeting between Xi, Putin and Kim Jong Un remains uncertain as Beijing seeks to avoid further US sanctions for its support for Russia. The presence of North Korean militants in Ukraine and Moscow-Pyongyang military cooperation add complexity to relations in the region.

Multipolarity: A concept with different interpretations

Multipolarity was the key word of the summit, but, as analysts point out, each country interprets it differently:

• For China, it means a reordering of the international order with Beijing in a central role.
• For Russia, it constitutes a strategy for survival and challenging Western hegemony.
• For India, it is a negotiating tool, allowing it to balance between East and West.

The SCO summit did not bring radical changes, but it did demonstrate that geopolitical lines are fluid. The smile in Tianjin was more a moment of careful balancing than a demonstration of sincere convergence.