In recent weeks, market expectations have been divided. Among 32 institutions consulted by Bloomberg, 20 projected stability in the Selic rate, while 12 believed in a 0.25 percentage point increase. Bradesco, Itaú and XP were among those expecting it to remain at the same rate. The decision to raise interest rates, therefore, breaks most of the bets and reinforces the view that Copom considers an additional tightening of monetary policy necessary.

The increase in the Selic rate comes at a time when inflation is beginning to show signs of relief. The Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) rose 0.26% in May, below market expectations. In the 12-month period, inflation was 5.30%, also below the forecast of 5.50%. The slowdown in food prices, the drop in gasoline and airfares, in addition to the recent appreciation of the real, contributed to this trajectory.

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The exchange rate has been a relevant factor in the decision, according to experts. The real has strengthened against the dollar in recent weeks, which tends to reduce the costs of imports and, consequently, alleviate some of the pressure on domestic prices. The price of Brent crude oil also remains below US$ 60 per barrel, favoring a reduction in fuel costs in the domestic market.

The performance of public accounts was also included in Copom's analysis. The government's fiscal deficit showed considerable improvement in relation to last year, which tends to reduce pressures on prices in the medium term. This improvement, analysts say, allows monetary policy to be calibrated without the need, at this time, for additional interest rate cuts.

With this decision, the Brazilian Central Bank signals that the monetary tightening cycle is not yet completely over. The market will now monitor whether the rate will be maintained at this level for the coming months or whether further adjustments will be necessary. Everything will depend on the trajectory of prices, the behavior of economic activity and the evolution of external factors.

Which applications stand out with Selic at 15%?

Fixed-income investments, especially those tied to post-fixed assets, should continue to yield interesting returns, according to Marcelo Mello, CEO of SulAmérica Investimentos. “In a scenario of inflation around 6% and a Selic rate of 15%, we have a real interest rate above 8% per year, which is difficult to find anywhere in the world,” he says.

This means that investments such as Bank Deposit Certificates (CDBs), Real Estate Credit Letters (LCI), Agribusiness Credit Letters (LCA), Treasury Direct bonds, such as Tesouro Selic, Debentures, especially those linked to the Interbank Deposit Certificate (CDI), which follows the Selic rate, and low-cost DI funds continue to offer attractive remuneration, with low credit risk, since they are protected by the Credit Guarantee Fund (FGC). There is, however, an ongoing debate about the possibility of taxing credit letters, a topic that still depends on progress in political and economic discussions in Congress.

The decision between investing in Tesouro Direto or post-fixed Bank Deposit Certificates (CDBs) varies according to the investor's profile and financial goals, according to José Carlos de Souza Filho, professor at FIA Business School. Tesouro Direto is considered a safer alternative because it is guaranteed by the Federal Government, while CDBs, despite offering FGC protection for amounts up to R$250,000 per institution, are subject to the financial solidity of the issuing bank.

Therefore, he says, more conservative investors tend to prioritize government bonds, while those willing to take on a little more risk in exchange for higher returns evaluate CDBs from medium or small banks. “Post-fixed CDBs can offer higher returns, especially if they exceed 100% of the CDI, but the risk can also be higher. It is worth noting that the CDBs offered by fintechs, although they generally pay above the CDI, are not guaranteed by the FGC”, he explains.

Mello, from SulAmérica Investimentos, says that fixed-rate bonds tend to suffer from the so-called mark-to-market, which generates fluctuations in the value of these securities before maturity. On the other hand, he believes that the monetary tightening cycle is nearing its end, which opens up space for these assets to start benefiting. In a context of interest rate maintenance, or the beginning of cuts by the Central Bank, fixed-rate bonds tend to offer interesting gains for those who choose to hold the bonds until maturity.

Mello also notes that inflation-indexed bonds, such as the Treasury IPCA, continue to be an attractive alternative. According to him, these bonds currently offer rates of around 7.5% per year, in addition to the IPCA variation, for terms of up to 10 years. This means that, by holding these assets until maturity, the investor guarantees a high real return, preserving purchasing power in the face of inflation and also benefiting from a very competitive interest premium in the market.

Are fixed income and stock exchange funds still worth it?

High interest rates continue to benefit the fixed income fund industry in Brazil, which has been attracting investors since last year. According to João Ferreira, partner at One Investimentos, more than R$240 billion was allocated to this type of product in 2024, a movement that continues strong this year.

Ferreira explains that, despite being part of the same class, fixed income funds have very different characteristics. “You have everything from cash funds, which are those with daily liquidity and which basically invest in banking assets and government bonds, to structured credit funds, such as FIDCs (Credit Rights Investment Funds) and FICFIDCs, which offer a more attractive return, but with a much less trivial credit risk,” he says.

For investors, the point of attention is precisely to understand that not all fixed income funds serve the same purpose. Ferreira warns that looking only at past returns, especially those of the last 12 months, is a common mistake. According to him, each fund carries a strategy, a degree of risk and a specific profitability proposal.

This means that it is essential to analyze the portfolio, the credit profile of the assets and the liquidity of each product before making a decision. The search for higher returns leads many investors to look at private credit funds, which have gained popularity, but which require a more careful analysis of the risks involved.

The partner at One Investimentos also believes that the high interest rate helps to keep the Brazilian stock market at attractive levels, with several shares traded at prices considered cheap, especially from the perspective of foreign investors. “The big detail is that with this high interest rate, we still have the stock market at very discounted levels and there are still many opportunities,” he says.

He adds that sectors such as utilities, which include energy, sanitation and public concession companies, tend to be less sensitive to interest rates, while other companies have become so discounted that they now offer opportunities for those seeking diversification and willing to take on some degree of risk.

Simulation

At the request of E-Investidor, Fabio Gallo, columnist for Estadão and professor of Finance at Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV-SP), prepared a simulation to evaluate the performance of investments in fixed income, considering the new Selic rate of 15% per year.

The survey adopts a projection of 5.25% for inflation measured by the IPCA, according to data from the Focus Bulletin, and an estimated annual savings profitability of 8.2%. The analysis includes calculations of gross profitability, net profitability — after taxes and fees are discounted — and real profitability, which takes into account the correction for inflation, for an initial investment of R$1,000.