According to Ukrainian analysts, the situation is more reminiscent of the situation in May 2024, when the Russians slipped through poorly prepared Ukrainian defenses along the border and advanced about 10 km. This invasion was contained and a local"pocket" remained. However, they remind that the breakthrough is likely the result of deeper problems at the strategic level, and if the Ukrainian combat units have only about 25% of the necessary manpower, which is deployed on a wide perimeter, and if they do not have enough drones or operators for them, accusations of incompetence against battalion and brigade commanders will be pure scapegoating.

"In summary: the situation could undoubtedly deteriorate to a catastrophic level with far worse consequences. This is a plausible scenario from the perspective of the upcoming negotiations that will be held. However, we are not at that point yet and the coming days will show whether this penetration can be contained," Frontelligence Insight concludes.