After another month of controversy and instability within the government, the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) has lowered the PSOE's vote estimate to 27.5% in its latest poll. This poll, the first published since Santos Cerdán's imprisonment and the statements in the Supreme Court by José Luis Ábalos, the former Socialist minister, and Koldo García, his former advisor, has reduced the PSOE's electoral prospects by almost seven points, narrowing its lead over the PP, which would obtain 27% of the vote. The result is so close that, with the margin of error corresponding to this type of poll, it results in a technical tie between the parties led by Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo.

The survey is being published during what has been a key week for the Executive. This Wednesday, the extraordinary plenary session was held in the Congress of Deputies regarding the corruption cases surrounding the government. Feijóo also discussed the prostitution businesses run by the father of Begoña Gómez, Pedro Sánchez's wife. A day in the lower house that gave the Executive a boost, but not complete guarantees of the long-term trust of its partners.

According to this month's CIS poll, Vox would achieve its best-ever result if elections were held, with an estimated 18.9% of the vote. The other parties show less variation in this new poll. Sumar increases to 7.8%, and Podemos remains at around 4.5%. Of the smaller parties, ERC would achieve 2.1%; Junts 1%; Se Acabó la Fiesta (The Party's Over) 1.7%; Bildu 0.9%; PNV 0.8%; BNG 0.7%; Coalición Canaria 0.3%; and UPN 0.1%.

We have to go back to the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024 to see such close results between the PP and the PSOE. During these months, the gap between the two parties was typically less than two points every month, often resulting in a dead heat.

Another category covered in the CIS barometer is questions asked of citizens. This month, this section of the study focused on NATO, the controversy over Donald Trump and defense spending, conflicts in the Middle East, and citizens' trust in the leader of the executive branch.

First, regarding NATO and the controversy with the US over the demand to spend 5% on defense, 54% of the more than four thousand respondents support Pedro Sánchez's position of limiting defense spending to 2.1% of GDP. Furthermore, nearly 60% believe US President Donald Trump's demand to allocate 5% of GDP should not be followed.

Tezanos's CIS also asked respondents if they were aware that allocating 5% of Spain's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to defense spending would entail a significant tax increase and/or a significant reduction in salaries and social spending. The answer was clear: 72.8% were aware. Furthermore, 71% believed the decision to allocate this percentage was very or fairly important.

The bombings in Israel were very worrying for 42.0% of respondents, quite a lot for 35.1%, and somewhat for 8.9%. Regarding the war in the Middle East, almost 70% were very or quite worried.