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The Putin-Trump meeting in Budapest: the unknown of the Russian president's flight route and the "mandatory arrest"

Friday, October 17


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After Donald Trump's announcement, confirmation also came from the Kremlin. The US president and Vladimir Putin expressed and confirmed their willingness to hold a summit in Budapest, Hungary, to try to end the war in Ukraine. First, however,"the issue will be discussed between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio," underlined Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. After the face-to-face meeting in Anchorage – Alaska (and therefore on US soil) – the new meeting should therefore be held at Viktor Orbán's home. This represents a significant step forward, given that Hungary is a member state of the European Union. This aspect complicates, and not a little, the organization of the summit, in particular for two issues: the arrest warrant against Putin issued by the International Criminal Court and, above all, the puzzle of the route that the plane – carrying the Russian president – will have to follow to reach Hungary, avoiding the airspace of many states openly hostile to Moscow. The unknown factor of the plane's route – It was Peskov himself who underlined that “ it is not yet clear ” what the logistics of Putin's flight to Budapest will be. In August, to reach Alaska, the Russian state plane crossed only its national airspace, the Bering Strait, and then flew over US territory escorted by US Air Force F-35s. In this case, however, everything is more complex. To reach Hungary, it is necessary to fly over several states. For this reason, many routes are already excluded a priori: it seems impossible for Putin's plane to cross the airspace of countries hostile
to Russia, such as the
Baltic Republics

, Poland , or Romania. The fastest and most direct route would be the one leading to Hungary via its ally Belarus and Ukraine: but overflying the country at war with Russia is obviously unrealistic. In an interview with Izvestia, political scientist Ivan Mezyuho indicated that the “ most likely option” was to avoid EU countries: in practice, passing through the Black Sea , crossing Turkey (a NATO country but certainly not hostile), flying over the Mediterranean and then reaching Hungary by crossing the airspace of Montenegro or Albania and Kosovo and, finally, that of Serbia. An unusual but not improbable path: just think of the recent strange route of Benjamin Netanyahu 's flight to reach the United States (which avoided Spain and France, but flew over Italy and Greece).

Hungarian airspace – There is another aspect. The European Union has closed its airspace to Russian flights. Therefore, even crossing Hungarian airspace would still require special authorization from the EU."If the summit is held in Budapest, the Americans will certainly want Putin to come. How, I don't know," commented a European diplomatic source. The issue could be raised by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto at the next Foreign Affairs Council on Monday. The minister himself, at a press conference, has already made it known that the Hungarian government"will welcome Putin with favor." "We assure him that he will be able to enter Hungary, conduct successful negotiations, and then return home," Szijjartó said."There is no need to consult anyone. We are a sovereign country," he added. On Telegram, the Condottiero channel (run by a Wagner veteran) emphasizes that there must be"strict guarantees of flight safety" for Putin, and that it is not excluded that"a US Air Force escort will join him over Europe."

Airspace and ICC Arrest Warrant – Another sensitive issue is the arrest warrant issued by the ICC in 2023. According to the Rome Statute, signatory countries are required to arrest a fugitive from the Court even if he enters their airspace. This circumstance did not arise for the August summit in Alaska because the United States has not ratified the Statute. But intercepting the flight is far from a given and mandatory, especially considering the recent case of Netanyahu's flight (also the subject of an ICC arrest warrant) , which flew over Italy and Greece without any consequences. The arrival at Budapest airport is a different story.

“Hungary has an obligation to arrest him” – If Putin touches Hungarian soil, Orbán's state has a “legal obligation” to arrest him, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has announced. Hungary has already hosted—without arresting—a person subject to an ICC arrest warrant: on April 3, Viktor Orbán received Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on an official visit. On the same day, he also announced his country's intention to withdraw from the Rome Statute (which established the ICC): “It has become a political court,” the Hungarian president argued. This decision was confirmed by the Hungarian parliament on April 29. For the International Criminal Court, however, this changes nothing:"Withdrawal from the Rome Statute takes effect one year after the notification of withdrawal is deposited with the Secretary-General of the United Nations, the depositary of international treaties. The withdrawal has no effect on ongoing proceedings or on any matter already under consideration by the Court prior to the date on which the withdrawal takes effect," it explains. Hungary's response was immediate, assuring that it has no intention of carrying out the arrest warrant:"We await President Vladimir Putin with respect, of course," Foreign Minister Szjjarto clarified.

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