TEHRAN, BRATISLAVA. Over the course of three days, Israel struck six military bases, a secured complex for military commanders, nuclear facilities, and residential buildings in the center of Tehran in the territory of Iran.
The attack on Iran, whose leadership calls for the destruction of Israel, crippled Iran's military command and at the very least slowed its nuclear program.
Iran says 128 people have died and around 900 have been injured in attacks over the past three days.
Iranian retaliatory attacks also hit the center of Tel Aviv and destroyed several residential buildings south of it, killing at least thirteen people and injuring dozens.
The biggest escalation in the relationship between Israel and Iran, and the biggest attack on the government in Tehran at least since the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988, raises concerns that the clash between the two countries could escalate into a wider regional conflict.
Israel says the attacks on Iran will continue for days to weeks, which could lead to further escalation, the involvement of foreign powers, and the possibility that the attacks will fundamentally weaken the Iranian regime.
“We know from history that the full consequences of an Israeli attack on Iran will unfold for years. It could prevent the development of an Iranian nuclear bomb, or, conversely, accelerate it. It could either destabilize the regime or further entrench it,” writes Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
What are the possible scenarios for further development?
In the article you will read:
- Why is Iran at a disadvantage in the regional conflict?
- Will the United States join in the intervention against Iran?
- Why could the attack paradoxically strengthen the Iranian regime?
- Why does Iran not have to stop its nuclear program?
- How can the situation be de-escalated?
1. Regional War
Israeli attacks on Iran and Iranian retaliatory attacks could escalate into a wider regional war in the Middle East, according to some experts.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday that Iran does not want the conflict with Israel to spread to neighboring countries unless Iran is forced to do so.
He called the Israeli attack on gas fields near Qatar's borders an"aggression and a very dangerous act" that seeks to spread the conflict to the Persian Gulf region.
But Iran is at a disadvantage, experts say, thanks to a series of mistakes that have led to a scenario Iran has long sought to avoid: an open war with Israel without the help of its proxies, the Wall Street Journal states.
Lebanon's Hezbollah is crippled after last year's Israeli attack, the terrorist Hamas movement is preoccupied with the critical situation in occupied Gaza and the high number of civilian casualties, and smaller pro-Iranian groups in Iraq may not have sufficient capabilities to attack Israel.
Israel also tried to eliminate the Houthi command in Yemen on Sunday, which had repeatedly fired ballistic missiles at Israel. However, the mission was not successful, according to the New York Times.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have condemned the Israeli attacks, but they may take a more pragmatic position, including in relation to rapprochement with the US.
However, a weakened Iran may react differently. In the past, Tehran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, effectively cutting off the only sea route to the Persian Gulf. About a quarter of the world's oil exports pass through this point.
