The European Union is expecting a letter from Donald Trump on Friday, which could announce new tariffs on products exported by Europeans, according to Reuters.

Trump has expanded the trade conflict with several countries, already announcing higher tariffs on Japan and South Korea, a 50% tax on copper and an increase to 35% in tariffs on Canada, after many weeks of negotiations with Washington.

The agreement with the US is uncertain, and Europeans are divided

"We would need a crystal ball to understand what the Americans are up to," a European diplomat told Reuters. Another source close to the talks suggested a deal was close, but the risk of a sudden announcement of new tariffs was low.

European stock markets reacted immediately. Shares fell on Friday as investors awaited clear signals from Washington. “Everyone expected a better deal, but now it looks like the outcome will be worse,” said Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, a British company specializing in online trading and financial analysis. He added that the recent rise in the German stock market reflects hopes for a favorable trade deal with the United States, but tariffs imposed on Canada, despite weeks of negotiations, call into question the chances of a real compromise.

The US dictates the terms, no zero taxes

On the other side of the Atlantic, President Trump said in an interview with NBC that not all trading partners would receive letters:"Not everyone has to get a letter. We know that. We just set our tariffs. And we're going to send out that all other countries will pay, either 20% or 15%," he said.

His statement, which suggests that the US will impose tariffs unilaterally, without specific negotiations or tailor-made agreements, hits hard at the idea of a zero-tariff agreement, initially promoted by the European Union. Brussels had hoped for a reciprocal elimination of tariffs on industrial goods, but this “bloc” approach from Washington significantly reduces the chances of a balanced compromise.

US – Europe trade, in different visions

According to official data, the US trade deficit with the EU was $235 billion in 2024, the main source of Trump's dissatisfaction, meaning that the United States imported far more goods from the European Union than it exported, meaning it spent more money on European products than it earned in Europe from the sale of American ones.

EU officials countered Trump's argument by pointing out that the United States has a surplus in services trade. Americans provide Europeans with more services, such as IT, consulting and financial services, than they buy from Europe, thus making up for some of the loss in goods.

China warns countries that support its economic isolation

"If this confrontation escalates into a conflict similar to the one with China, the impact on financial markets will be major," warned Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Trade tensions are also being felt in Asia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Kuala Lumpur on Friday on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit – a gathering aimed at managing challenges in the region, including economic and geopolitical ones. The US and China are vying for influence in Asia, and Beijing has warned it will retaliate if Washington reimposes high trade tariffs next month. China has also threatened to take action against countries that make deals with the US to cut it out of global supply chains.