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Trump promises trilateral meeting between Russia, Ukraine, and the US. "The war will end," he says.

Monday, August 18


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The meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky got off to a good start this time. After a February clash between the US President and his Ukrainian counterpart heightened tensions in the White House Oval Office, the two leaders are now heading into talks with closer positions—and with Trump promising a trilateral meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine if"all goes well" in the negotiations this Monday.

At the press conference that preceded a conversation between the two presidents and meetings with seven other European leaders, Trump was peremptory:"The war between Ukraine and Russia will end." "When, I can't say," he revealed, accompanied by Zelensky, who this time arrived at the White House in a suit - a choice that did not go unnoticed by the US president and the journalists present in the Oval Office, after accusations of informality in the last meeting between the two leaders.

The idea of a trilateral meeting also appeals to the Ukrainian president."We support the idea. We want President Trump to help end the war through diplomatic channels. And we are ready for a trilateral meeting," Zelensky said, after Trump indicated he would call Russian leader Vladimir Putin after Monday's meetings.

The war between Ukraine and Russia has been a thorn in Donald Trump's political agenda. During the election campaign, the Republican promised to end the conflict within days, but now acknowledges that negotiations have been more complex than he imagined. For now, the US President rules out the need for a ceasefire agreement between the two parties to achieve peace.

"We can work on a peace agreement while the two countries are fighting. They need to fight. I'd like them to stop, but strategically, there could be a disadvantage for either side" with a ceasefire, he believes. However, Trump, who claims to be neutral in the conflict, doesn't rule out sending US troops to Ukraine to ensure the country's security.

In anticipation of possible developments that may arise from these negotiations, António Costa, President of the European Council, decided to call a meeting with the leaders of the 27 for Tuesday, stating that,"together with the United States, the European Union will work to achieve a lasting peace that guarantees the interests of Ukraine and Europe."

Delayed reaction in European markets. Caution is the watchword.

With markets already closed at the time of the White House meeting, the reaction is only expected to be felt in Europe this Tuesday."Despite the Western press describing Friday's meeting [between Trump and Putin in Alaska] as a 'failure,' financial markets continue to trade as if there might be some—as yet undetermined—path to peace," ING analysts indicate in a research note.

The main European indices closed the first session of the week with mixed gains and losses, with little movement, awaiting news from Washington. The Stoxx 600, the benchmark for European trading, gained 0.08% to 554.01 points, driven by the healthcare and telecommunications sectors.

In addition to stocks, the oil market was also on hold, given the potential impact of a ceasefire on energy exports. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark in the United States, fell to around $62.50 per barrel, while Brent, the benchmark for Europe, slipped to $65.50.

The session was volatile and marked by statements from White House adviser Peter Navarro, who accused India of financing the Russian war through the purchase of crude oil."India acts as a global intermediary for Russian oil, converting embargoed crude into valuable exports while providing Moscow with the dollars Russia needs," Navarro said, as quoted by Reuters.

Despite some initial price momentum following the statements, there was eventually a correction. According to Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank,"the market has not yet fully reflected a peaceful scenario, which could further pressure crude and gas prices in Europe."

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