(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Cha Byeong-seop = As North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un has decided to attend the military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese People's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti-Fascist War (World War II) (Victory Day 80th Anniversary) to be held in Beijing, China on the 3rd of next month, attention is focused on whether Chairman Kim will stand next to Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Tiananmen Watchtower.

With China paying close attention to the parade seating arrangements, to the point of being called"watchtower diplomacy," if the leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia stand side by side, it could serve as an opportunity to externally demonstrate the strengthening of North Korea-China-Russia relations in response to South Korea, the U.S., and Japan.

Ten years ago, when then-President Park Geun-hye attended the military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the victory in World War II, there were even assessments that the relationship between South Korea and China was"honeymooning." However, after that, relations between South Korea and China cooled rapidly due to the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea.

◇ 10 years ago, the leaders of South Korea, China, and Russia were side by side... North Korea's Choe Ryong-hae was on the edge

Former President Park Geun-hye was the first South Korean leader to climb the Tiananmen Square to watch China's military parade during the 70th anniversary of China's Victory Day on September 3, 2015.

Former President Park climbed the steps of the watchtower, standing in front alongside President Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and sat in the second seat to President Xi's right, facing Tiananmen Square, to watch the parade.

Among the dozens of foreign leaders gathered at the time, former President Park sat next to President Putin. To Park's right stood the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, while the leaders of America's allies, including the United States and Japan, did not attend.

Choe Ryong-hae, a North Korean delegate but not a head of state, sat on the far right side of the front row of the Tiananmen Gate and did not have a private meeting with President Xi. This was seen as a symbolic demonstration of the changing North Korea-China relationship.

At the time, North Korea-China relations had become strained following Kim Jong-un's rise to power in 2011, following North Korea's nuclear tests and the purge of pro-China collaborator Jang Song-thaek. However, South Korea-China relations strengthened after President Xi Jinping visited South Korea before North Korea in 2014 and former President Park Geun-hye attended a Chinese military parade in 2015.

However, after South Korea deployed the US THAAD missile defense system in 2016, China took tangible and intangible retaliatory measures, including the ban on Korean Wave, and South Korea-China relations cooled.

Kim Jong-un's first appearance on a multilateral stage... Kim Il-sung also attended the parade 'right after the Korean War'

However, the international situation has changed rapidly over the past decade, and this time, Chairman Kim's attendance at the Victory Day parade has been announced.

Hong Lei, Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs of China, announced the list of attendees, including Chairman Kim, at a press conference on the 28th, saying,"26 foreign heads of state and government will attend the commemorative event."

Despite the recent strengthening of North Korea-Russia relations, Chairman Kim did not attend Russia's Victory Day celebrations in May, and this is the first time that Chairman Kim, who has insisted on bilateral diplomacy, has stood on the stage of what is effectively multilateral diplomacy.

As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was expected to attend, is not attending, there is talk that Chairman Kim will receive a similar protocol as former President Park, and Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University believes that it is likely that President Putin and Chairman Kim will stand on either side of Chairman Xi.

Initially, China sounded out President Lee Jae-myung's intention to attend, but South Korea decided to have National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik attend, considering the impact on South Korea-U.S. relations.

The event will be attended by President Putin, as well as the leaders of Vietnam, Laos, Mongolia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, and Iran.

North Korea-China relations appeared to be improving in 2019 when President Xi Jinping visited North Korea, the first visit by a Chinese president in 14 years. However, until recently, there were assessments that North Korea-China relations were not as good as they used to be due to the close relationship between North Korea and Russia.

According to a report by the Institute for National Security Strategy, North Korea and China designated last year, the 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties, as the"Year of North Korea-China Friendship," but the two sides failed to narrow their differences over the scale of aid to North Korea, creating an atmosphere of estrangement.

However, a change in the atmosphere has been detected recently, with the attendance of high-ranking Supreme People's Assembly Presidium Chairman Choe Ryong-hae at a victory celebration event held at the Chinese Embassy in North Korea this month and his remarks about the friendship between the two countries in the past when they fought together against Japan.

If Chairman Kim stands on the Tiananmen Watchtower, he will follow in the footsteps of his grandfather, former Chairman Kim Il-sung.

Former President Kim Dae-jung climbed the Tiananmen Square and watched the parade alongside Chinese President Mao Zedong in 1954, shortly after the Korean War (1950–1953), commemorating the fifth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. China refers to the Korean War as the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea (the War to Resist America and Aid Korea).

In a situation where South Korea has recently held successive summits between South Korea, the US, and Japan and agreed to strengthen cooperation between South Korea, the US, and Japan, there are assessments that if the leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia stand side by side, the confrontational structure between North Korea, China, and Russia and between South Korea, the US, and Japan in Northeast Asia could further intensify.

The Blue House said it was"aware in advance" of Chairman Kim's attendance at the military parade, adding that"this South Korea-U.S. summit was also fundamentally influenced by these events."

Meanwhile, during the military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China in 2019, former Presidents Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao stood on the left and right of President Xi Jinping at the Tiananmen Square.

As all the former presidents who were alive at the time made their first official appearances in a long time, there was an assessment that there were no problems with President Xi's power despite the US-China conflict and the Hong Kong protests.

However, since it was National Foundation Day, not Victory Day, foreign heads of state did not attend the parade.