Jair Bolsonaro is found guilty in Brazil's Supreme Court of leading a criminal organization that planned to overthrow one of the world's largest democracies.

NTB

That became clear when the fourth Supreme Court judge, Carmen Lucia, cast her vote in the trial of the ex-president and seven of his former allies. There is now a majority to find Bolsonaro and seven others guilty on all counts.

The formal verdict and sentencing will come on Friday.

– Frustrated fans

Bolsonaro, who was the Latin American country's most powerful man from 2019 to 2022, is found guilty of plotting a coup d'état after his election defeat to current President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. He is also accused of knowing about plans to assassinate Lula and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is now leading the case against him.

– Among Bolsonaro's supporters, I think there will be a lot of frustration, anger and perhaps protests. Those who support the current government, and more broadly those who are concerned with the rule of law and democracy, will celebrate this as a victory, says social geographer and author Torkjell Leira to NTB.

First verdict for military coup

He points out that it is the first time that politicians or military leaders have been convicted of military coups, or attempted military coups, in Brazil's history - despite the fact that there have been many such coups and attempted coups throughout the country's history. Carmen Lucia said, among other things, while giving her reasons, that with the verdict, Brazil is facing its past, present and future.

Despite the historic trial, the atmosphere in the capital Brasília has been calm, according to Leira. He is in the city and describes a huge security presence around the Supreme Court building.

– There have been smaller demonstrations both for and against Bolsonaro at his house just outside the city. Every evening a prayer service has also been held in support of him.

– Always a risk of violence

However, that may change, and demonstrations from several political groups are planned for Friday, when the case is initially scheduled to conclude with sentencing.

– There will probably be quite a lot of security forces on the streets, at least in the largest cities. We are talking about a very polarized population.

Several of the charges against Bolsonaro and his allies are related to violence, incitement to violence and antagonizing political opponents, Leira points out.

– There is always a risk of violence in Brazil.

Simple plural

"The word coup has never been part of my vocabulary," Bolsonaro replied during the trial, according to the AFP news agency.

Earlier, both de Moraes and Supreme Court Justice Flávio Dino had found Bolsonaro guilty, while Supreme Court Justice Luiz Fux voted to acquit him. Fux received a cold reception from his Supreme Court colleagues on Thursday.

In the trial with five judges, a simple majority applies, so Bolsonaro is found guilty even before the last judge has cast his vote.

Probably not a regular prison

The final judge's ruling will still be important for any appeal. Should Bolsonaro appeal the verdict, the case will be analyzed by the six remaining Supreme Court judges who are not on the current panel. They will only review specific appeals if there was disagreement in the initial verdict, such as on a charge or sentence.

Bolsonaro will have to serve several years, but it is unlikely that he will be in a regular prison. As a former army captain, he is entitled to special detention, which could take place at the army headquarters in Brasília or at the federal police headquarters in the same city.

Published: September 11, 2025 10:36 PM