It is likely that Russia may activate targeted information and psychological operations, as well as disinformation campaigns during the active phase of the"Zapad-2025" exercise, including against the"Nameys 2025" exercise.

Regardless of the progress of the Zapad exercises, the threat posed to Latvia by the intelligence and security services of Russia and Belarus is continuous and targeted. The activities of these services are mainly aimed at obtaining intelligence information about the Latvian defense system in order to provide the political and military leadership of both countries with the data necessary for decision-making, as well as to regularly provide the armed forces with information for planning military operations, the MIDD publication states.

The main source of intelligence threat to Latvia is the Russian and Belarusian military intelligence (GRU), which uses both technical capabilities from its territory and agencies inside Latvia.

The"Zapad" exercise scenario will serve as a platform for GRU activities, however, a significant increase in their intensity is not currently foreseeable.

At the same time, the MIDD has emphasized that Russian special services are constantly involved in planning new sabotage and diversions in Europe, often through third parties. This is evidenced by a series of hostile activities in NATO and EU member states, which have been detected at least since the beginning of 2024, regardless of the"Zapad" exercises.

It has already been reported that another Latvian special service, the Constitutional Protection Bureau, stated in its publication on September 3 that the threat posed by"Zapad-2025" to Latvia and NATO is low, however, both countries use the exercises to develop strategic communication in domestic and foreign policy.