Security and political analysts in the UAE see Israel’s recent deadly strikes in Qatar targeting Hamas leaders, not only as politically unacceptable but also as an attack on the sovereignty of a Gulf state — one that puts the Abraham Accords “in a more precarious position than at any point since their inception.”

Dr Kristian Patrick Alexander, senior fellow and lead researcher at Rabdan Security and Defence Institute in Abu Dhabi, told Khaleej Times the strike in Doha on Tuesday was “not just a military action. It was a profound diplomatic and symbolic challenge to the entire framework of the Accords. It was a direct, kinetic violation of a fellow Gulf state's sovereignty.”

Dr Alexander, who is also an advisor at Gulf States Analytics, explained: “It is one thing for an Israeli leader to make a politically charged statement about the West Bank, but it is another for Israel to launch a military operation on the soil of a close US ally and a fellow GCC member."

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The Abraham Accords — nearing its fifth anniversary after it was signed during US President Donald Trump's first term in office back in September 2020 — saw the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco normalise diplomatic relations with Israel after mediation by the American government.

Last week, UAE Minister of State Lana Zaki Nusseibeh warned Israel that any annexation of the West Bank “would constitute a red line that would severely undermine the vision and spirit of the Abraham Accords.”

In a statement sent to Khaleej Times by the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFa) on September 3, Nusseibeh said: “From the very beginning, we viewed the Accords as a way to enable our continued support for the Palestinian people and their legitimate aspiration for an independent state. That was our position in 2020, and it remains our position today. The proposals to annex parts of the West Bank, reportedly under discussion in the Israeli government is part of an effort that would, in the words of an Israeli minister, “bury the idea of a Palestinian state.”

Nusseibeh, who previously served as the UAE’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, reiterated the Abraham Accords “were built on a vision of peace anchored in prosperity, coexistence, and tolerance.”

Future of the Accords

Following Israel’s strike on September 9, Qatar and other countries condemned the attack as cowardly and called it a “flagrant violation not only of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Qatar but also of international law.”

Analysts have also weighed in on the future of the Abraham Accords.

“While the Accords are unlikely to be fully abrogated,” Dr Alexander noted, “they will almost certainly be put on ice. We can expect a significant cooling of relations, a suspension of new initiatives, and a more public — and at times — critical stance from the Gulf states towards Israel. This (recent attack) severely undermines the"vision and spirit" of the Accords, which was to build a new era of cooperation.

“The view that Israel is not interested in an agreement to end the war has gained significant traction, and the Doha strike provides a powerful argument for it. The attack occurred at a time when Hamas negotiators were reportedly considering a new US-backed ceasefire proposal. By targeting the very individuals responsible for negotiating a peace deal, Israel has created a situation where the talks are now deadlocked, at least for the foreseeable future,” Dr Alexander added.

Emirati political analyst Mohammed Al Sawafi agreed the attack on Doha was “politically unacceptable” because Qatar has been mediating between Palestinians and Israelis.

Al Sawafi called on Arab states, countries in the region and beyond “to unite to put an end to Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military escalation.”

He is also hopeful that the recent violence is unlikely to affect Gulf states’ peace efforts with Israel. There are two reasons, he explained, “first, Netanyahu’s actions do not represent the Israeli opposition or large segments of its society; and second, stability in the region and resolving the Palestinian issue remain a Gulf priority, as that is the only natural solution.”

What must be done?

UAE citizen and columnist Eisa AlZarooni also condemned Tuesday’s Israel attack in Doha. He called it an “unprecedented crossing of red lines. It is not just a military operation against leaders of an organisation, but a betrayal of the sovereignty of a Gulf state known for its humanitarian and political role in mediation.

“When the heart of a mediator is targeted, it is a direct threat to the peace process and an assault on the security of the entire region. From the UAE’s perspective, Gulf security is indivisible, and what took place in Qatar is categorically unacceptable,” he told Khaleej Times.

AlZarooni added that what must be done is to go back to serious and constructive negotiations. He noted: “The UAE believes that dialogue is the only path to achieving genuine stability. The Abraham Accords were built on a core principle of reducing tensions, avoiding unilateral steps such as annexation, and opening horizons for integration.”

“There should be widespread and strong pressure condemning violations of sovereignty, such as what happened in Qatar, and rejecting annexation and settlement policies,” he added. “What is needed is for the world to address the root of the problem, not just its symptoms. recognising Palestinian rights and ensuring the security of the region without exception.”