Lots of people try to understand Trump and Russia – why, when Trump appears to have all the cards, has he chosen not to play them?

I have argued in this blog multiple times that upon assuming office, Trump had all the cards to force Putin to the negotiating table, by first increasing military supplies to Ukraine, and also by upping sanctions on Russia. There was no real downside to the US from either. A deal on Ukraine was there in the making, but Trump seemed to fluff the script.

Nov. 8, 2024

It is quite extraordinarily how the fortunes of President elect Trump and President Putin of Russia have changed since they last met back in 2019.

On Russia, I explained it differently, that I thought that Trump was genuinely scared of Putin – perhaps his nuclear menace, or Putin’s criminal background, that Putin would literally kill anyone to get his way.

And even a POTUS’s own life would not get in the way of Putin’s mission. This explained in my view Trump’s constant reluctance to criticize Putin, and his unwillingness to enforce any sanction on Russia, whilst at the same time ostensibly always puttiUkraineane, and Zelensky to the fire. Trump seemed to like to bully the weak, while looking up and conceding the ground to the strong.

Something might have changed over the past few weeks. Trump has appeared more willing of late to criticize Putin for his actions in Ukraine – particularly the constantly upping of air attacks on Ukraine.

Frustrations also appear to have grown with Putin’s stance in peace negotiations – I think the Trump team genuinely thought that they understood Russia and Putin.

Give the bully what he wants and he will go away – and what he wants was Ukraine. Initially, the Trump team indeed conceded almost everything and much more in the lead up to peace talks – no NATO for Ukraine, no bilateral security guarantees from the US, Russia keeps all the land it occupies.

Putin’s response, though, was not to agree to a ceasefire, let alone a peace, but to ask for more – demilitarization and denazifications, euphemisms therein for the disarmament of Ukraine, and the replacement of Zelensky and its leadership for a government accepting of domination by Russia.

Zelensky and Ukraine could never agree as this would mean the end of Ukrainian sovereignty. At first, the Trump team seemed to think that this might be a price worth paying, but then figured the Ukrainians would just keep on fighting and they would be blamed by all.

So they took a time out to focus on other stuff – Israel and Iran. Trump seemed to pass the buck on Ukraine to Europe and the Vatican even, suggesting that the Trump win was getting Russia to the negotiating table, but that it was for others now to close the deal.

Trump though, seems to be back to focusing on Russia and Ukraine – perhaps he feels that the win he secured over Iran in the 12-day war now gives him leverage or advantage over Putin. Trump has promised a big announcement later today. What could this be?

First, Trump mentioned over the weekend likely announcements of new arms deliveries to Ukraine – including mention of new sophisticated weaponry, presumably including Patriot missiles. He also mentioned that Europe would be paying for the supply of equipment. All this dovetails with the visit of NATO Secretary General Rutte, to Washington today. And therein, a press conference with Rutte is being promised.

I would expect herein a big announcement on huge European arms purchases from the US, much of which will be bound for Ukraine. Trump will make a big thing of the fact that not a dime of US money is being spent. Europe finally seems to be getting wise to Trump – readers herein will have noted I called on Europe to get clever and commit to a big arms purchase program from the US – a $1 trillion Trump program for defense of freedom in Europe. Call it Trump’s Trillion for Tanks, TTT, or whatever. Play to the ego of the Ego in Chief.

June 10, 2025

I was “in da house”, Chatham House, for NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte’s speech on NATO’s priorities/agenda in the run up to the Hague summit looming in a couple of weeks.

I think we might see Rutte saying something similar today. Even better if Europe was clever and persuaded the US to back the confiscation of CBR assets to fund such a program – albeit we know here that the bottleneck on agreement on CBR assets is in Europe (ECB, France, Belgium, and Italy), not the US. There are around $8 billion of CBR assets in the U.S. if Trump seized these to pay for arms supplies for Ukraine, it would then heap pressure on Europe to do the same for the $250 billion in CBR assets immobilized in European jurisdictions. It would immediately embarrass Europe into action.

Second, the bigger question is whether Trump will be willing to impose significant sanctions on Russia. The mother of all Russia sanctions bills has over 80 supporters now in the US Senate, including Lindsay Graham, and enough to pass.

The bill calls for 500% tariffs on importers of Russian energy and commodities. For the Russian economy, this would be devastating as commodities make up 80% of Russian exports, and a similar share of Russian budget revenues. If 500% tariffs are imposed, it would totally halt Russian commodity exports, crippling the Russian economy completely. Likely we would see a Russian markets crash, the ruble collapse, runs on banks, banks collapse, huge capital flight – think the 1998 crisis.

However, with Russia accounting for 10% of global oil exports and large shares of an array of other commodities, Russia, and I think the market, assumes that Trump would not dare such a disruptive, and potentially globally systemic action. Russia is assuming TACO. Let’s see. Likely, Trump will seek to up the pressure on Putin by giving a timeframe for pushing on with the 500% tariff bill. As it is a revenue bill, it will in any event need US House approval – it has been unclear how the Republican majority would fall on this issue without guidance from Trump. Trump might now see capital in encouraging progress through Congress, mindful that even if passed, the ultimate decision to impose any such move will lie in the White House. Trump likely will demand concessions now from Putin, calling for him to take a more serious line on peace negotiations.

Putin, Ukraine, et al will be asking themselves whether TACO.