FAQ
Ukraine
Following the confusion surrounding the so-called US peace plan for Ukraine, the document is now being revised. What is known about the status of the negotiations? And what are the next steps? An overview.
What is currently being negotiated?
Last week, a draft plan to end Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine was leaked to US media. However, the text met with massive criticism in Ukraine and the EU and is now to be revised.
The details of the original plan were listed in 28 points and included, among other things, far-reaching territorial concessions by Ukraine to Russia. Key points also included a ban on Ukrainian NATO membership and a limitation on the size and capacity of the Ukrainian army.
While the draft mentioned security guarantees from the US, it left open what form these would take. It also contained provisions regarding confiscated Russian state assets, the financing of Ukraine's reconstruction, and Russian-American economic cooperation.
Critics saw the terms of this draft primarily as an endorsement of Russia's war aims. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, referring to the plan, called it"one of the most difficult moments in our country's history." However, he pledged to work with the US on a solution and to present alternatives.
Representatives of the EU and other European states also called for a revision of the plan with their own participation. Germany, France, and the United Kingdom received a negotiating mandate from other European states and presented their proposals to Washington and Kyiv. On Sunday, representatives from Ukraine, the US, and Europe met in Geneva to negotiate the details of a revised plan for ending the war in Ukraine.
Who wrote the original draft?
That is unclear. US government spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt stated that the plan had been drafted over weeks by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff. US media had reported on alleged secret talks between Moscow and Washington prior to the draft's publication.
According to several US senators, Rubio even told them that the 28-point plan did not originate in the US at all. Instead, Witkoff had received it from Russia.
Carsten Kühntopp reports from the ARD studio in Washington that several formulations in the document actually sound like direct translations from Russian into English. However, the US State Department denied this: the Russians and Ukrainians had merely provided input for the US plan.
According to Kühntopp, high-ranking officials in the Foreign Ministry and the National Security Council only learned of the plan from the press. The confusion surrounding the plan's origin suggests either chaotic government action or a power struggle between Rubio, Witkoff, Vice President JD Vance, and others over the right course of action toward Russia.
What changes have been made to the draft so far?
At present, we can only speculate about this. Representatives from the US and Ukraine did discuss changes to the draft in Geneva over the weekend, but they released few details. However, the talks apparently centered on one of Ukraine's key demands: the question of security guarantees, which is formulated very vaguely in the leaked draft.
The central question here is how Ukraine can be reliably protected against a potential new Russian attack following a period of military buildup – which powers will guarantee this protection, and what promises and warnings they will issue. A White House statement said that security guarantees were also discussed during the meeting.
The US Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, stated that the US did not want vague security guarantees – which had characterized previous agreements such as the 1991 Budapest Memorandum or the 2015 Minsk Agreement.
US Secretary of State Rubio also emphasized that Ukraine must feel secure after an agreement. Military expert Markus Reisner explained on tagesschau24 that discussions are now underway to make the security guarantees as robust as Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Everything depends on the willingness of the US to provide these guarantees.
The Washington Post reported that the reduction of the Ukrainian army to 600,000 troops, as outlined in the original draft, could be changed or removed, and that Trump was considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk long-range missiles after a peace agreement. US officials and Europeans were also working to establish a kind of security barrier along the ceasefire line to prevent Russia from launching another attack.
German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul provided further insight. He stated on Deutschlandfunk radio that all issues concerning Europe and NATO had been removed from the original US plan. There must be no agreement over the heads of the Europeans and the Ukrainians, he said. It must be ensured that Ukraine's sovereignty is respected and that Ukraine itself decides what concessions it makes. Wadephul considered this a decisive success.
How strong is the pressure on Ukraine?
The pressure on Ukraine stems from several developments. Militarily, Russia is advancing in eastern Ukraine. However, in the roughly four years since the start of its war of aggression in February 2022, Russia has not managed to conquer all of eastern Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War estimates the current rate of Russian territorial gains in the Donetsk region at 9.3 square kilometers per day. If this rate continues, Russia will not have conquered the region until August 2027. Therefore, the Russian narrative that a victory for its army is inevitable is incorrect.
However, Ukraine remains dependent on international funding and arms deliveries. In particular, US Patriot missiles play a crucial role in its air defense. Furthermore, intelligence from US agencies is vital for Ukraine's defense; its loss would severely weaken the military.
Ukrainian society, after four years of defending itself against Russia's constant attacks on civilian targets, is weary of war, but according to polls, it is not ready for a peace of subjugation. US President Trump, on the other hand, desperately wants an end to hostilities—to stop the deaths in the country and to resume business with Russia. In recent months, he and his special envoy, Vitkov, have repeatedly shown themselves to be receptive to Russian narratives and demands.
Politically, President Zelenskyy is under pressure due to the rampant corruption in the country. It was recently revealed that government officials allegedly enriched themselves through the protection and restoration of the energy infrastructure – while people suffer from cold and repeated power outages. This has severely damaged Zelenskyy's position: it is possibly a factor that Russia is counting on.
What happens next?
Apparently, an ultimatum that Trump had issued to Ukraine has been withdrawn: Initially, he had demanded approval or rejection by Thursday of this week. This is no longer being discussed.
Zelenskyy could travel to the US as early as this week to discuss the most sensitive aspects of the plan with Trump, insiders told Reuters. The Ukrainian president recently indicated he was open to compromises on the US peace proposals. His government will continue working on them with its partners, he said via video link at a summit of the Crimea Platform in Sweden. He added that Russia must pay for the war and that a decision on the use of frozen Russian assets is crucial.
Today, Monday, EU heads of state and government will continue their discussions on revising the plan in Angola on the sidelines of the EU-Africa summit. Then, on Tuesday, the heads of state and government of the"coalition of the willing," which supports Ukraine, will discuss the peace talks in a video conference, a spokeswoman for the European Commission announced. She added that there is still much work to be done on the peace proposals.
Since the ultimatum to Ukraine has expired, there is currently no foreseeable date when an agreement could be reached. Foreign Minister Rubio, referring to Ukrainian approval of a peace plan, said they wanted it to happen"soon," but whether that was "Thursday, Friday, Wednesday, or Monday next week" was secondary.
And then the agreement must be presented to the Russian leadership again. Since the proposals that came to light last week were largely driven by Russian military interests, it is reasonable to assume that further talks will take place – provided Russia is even willing to engage in this procedure. Then it will become clear how willing Russia is to negotiate, particularly regarding territorial concessions and security guarantees for Ukraine.
