The Ibovespa closed this Thursday (10) down 0.54% at 136,743.26 points. Just like the dollar, which closed higher at R$ 5.5452, the reaction of the main index of the B3 reflected the repercussion of investors around the decision of the American president, Donald Trump , to impose 50% tariffs on Brazilian products shipped to the USA. The rate is the highest disclosed based on the letters sent by the Republican to the countries since the beginning of this week. The new rates will come into effect from August 1st.

The tariffs against Brazil, according to Trump, are a response to the country's treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro and the Supreme Court's rulings against American technology companies. The rationale and magnitude of the tariffs, however, surprised the market, which had expected lower rates, even with the Republican's recent threats to the BRICS.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) said he will respond to Trump's protectionist measures through the Economic Reciprocity Act, passed by Congress this year. The legislation provides for retaliation and the suspension of trade agreements, investment agreements, and obligations related to intellectual property rights.

Among the day's biggest declines were shares of Embraer (EMBR3), which fell 3.7%. The drop signals investor concern that the aircraft manufacturer could be the most affected by US tariffs if it is forced to absorb them without passing them on to customers."We see a 14-15% negative impact on consolidated EBIT/profit for each 10 percentage point tariff increase, given the final assembly of executive jets at its Florida facility, which uses Brazilian products in its process, and an indirect impact on demand amid an inflationary environment for aircraft," XP said in a report released early this morning.

Gustavo Cruz, chief strategist at RB Investimentos, disagrees with this assessment and sees the depreciation in Embraer's shares as unfair. He argues that the company already operates production plants in the United States, which would place it outside the scope of the new tariffs."Currently, Embraer has 383 aircraft on order from American companies, and these deliveries cannot simply be reallocated to Boeing or Airbus, as both have their production lines committed until 2030," explains Cruz. This means that if the tariffs are applied to Embraer, the impact will be greater for regional aviation and the American economy."The market's overreaction makes no sense," he concludes.

Among the day's biggest losers were shares of Minerva (BEEF3), which fell 1.28% on the Ibovespa index today. This morning, the company, which is strong in exports, reported that the potential impact of US tariffs imposed on Brazil represents 5% of the company's net revenue.

Vale (VALE3) went against the trend and rose 2.29% to R$55.28, limiting losses on the Ibovespa. Petrobras shares were mixed: PETR3 rose 0.17%, while PETR4 fell 0.25%.

European stock markets, meanwhile, closed without a single signal today, in another session focused on possible news regarding tariff negotiations with US President Donald Trump. The rise in copper, which is subject to a 50% tax, boosted mining companies, which was particularly positive for stocks in London, where the FTSE 100 renewed its all-time high. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.54% at 552.93 points. In London, the FTSE 100 rose 1.23% to 8,975.66 points. In Frankfurt, the DAX fell 0.31% to 24,473.08 points. In Paris, the CAC 40 rose 0.30% to 7,902.25 points.

In New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.43%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 advanced 0.09% and 0.27%, respectively. The latter two set new closing records. Airlines soared, and Nvidia (NVDA) closed at a record high and with an unprecedented value of $4 trillion.

June IPCA on the radar

The market also followed the results of the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for June, which rose 0.24%, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). With this result, the index has accumulated a 5.35% increase in the last 12 months, up from the 5.32% observed in May. For André Valério, senior economist at Inter, the result, while higher than expected, confirms the expectation of inflation settling."For the coming months, we expect this settling to continue, with a good portion of the exchange rate decline observed this year still being passed on to industrial and free goods, which are already quite settled," emphasizes Valério.

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However, he believes that the result seen this Thursday (10) does not yet reflect the effects of the end of the monetary tightening cycle in the country. In June, when the Central Bank (BC) last met, the board members signaled to the market that they intend to interrupt the interest rate hike cycle, with the aim of assessing whether the Selic rate is sufficient to bring inflation back to the target."We expect these signals to be more evident throughout the 3rd and 4th quarters, potentially creating conditions for Copom to begin the rate cut cycle at the December meeting," adds the economist.

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Also on the economic agenda today, the Lula administration held a ceremony to regulate the Green Mobility and Innovation (Mover) program, regarding the Green IPI (Inflationary Income Tax) and the creation of the Sustainable Car program. The National Treasury held auctions of National Treasury Bills (LTN, fixed-rate securities) maturing in 2026, 2027, 2029, and 2032, as well as National Treasury Note series F (NTN-F, fixed-income security) for 2031 and 2035.

With information from Luciana Xavier, from Broadcast