That's what it's about

• A precarious ceasefire has been in effect in the Gaza Strip since Friday; the first phase included the exchange of hostages and prisoners.
• The further implementation of the agreement is unclear, and experts see major challenges.
• The question of a Palestinian state remains a central point of contention.

Since Friday, the weapons in the Gaza Strip have been laid down, according to a peace agreement negotiated by US President Trump and several other countries. On Monday, the release of hostages and prisoners sparked celebrations on both sides – but since then, violence has again erupted in the area, both on the part of Hamas and the Israeli army. According to two experts, there is still a long way to go before a lasting peace can be achieved.

The fundamental challenge

Regarding the future of the Palestinian people and the possible formation of a state, Middle East expert Marcus Schneider says:"The agreement ends the war, but does not provide a long-term political solution." He points out that the two-state solution, which more and more countries have advocated for in recent months, only appears very marginally in the agreement and is not even an option for Israel.

Political scientist Peter Lintl sees one of the greatest challenges in the withdrawal of the Israeli army and the subsequent planned disarmament of Hamas: This is the biggest stumbling block – at the moment, no one knows whether they are truly willing to completely surrender their weapons. While there are signs of a certain willingness, the extent of this is completely open, Lintl told 20 Minuten.

These are the next possible steps

Even according to Schneider's assessment, it is still unclear from where in the Gaza Strip the Israeli army will withdraw. Peace is currently closely tied to Trump's ego. The war won't restart immediately, but the next steps are relatively vague.

Who will fill the power vacuum?

Following the IDF's withdrawal, violent clashes have already broken out between Hamas terrorists and armed clans, with Hamas already winning the first internal battles. It remains to be seen how strong Hamas is to prevail. This also depends on how quickly reconstruction proceeds and how much humanitarian aid reaches the area, said Schneider. The question of who will control the Gaza Strip in the future also reveals one of Israel's major mistakes: It hasn't produced any real alternatives to Hamas, but has only ever cooperated with such clans on an ad hoc basis.

What’s next for the population?

According to the agreement, the people of Gaza should be encouraged to stay in the area. However, according to Lintl, this will be extremely difficult, as the Gaza Strip is largely destroyed. In the short to medium term, it is therefore quite possible that many people will leave the area anyway because they no longer see a future.

How could the Palestinian Authority be involved?

While the Arab states desire a strong involvement of the Palestinian Authority in the future of the Gaza Strip, Schneider believes Israel will clearly reject this. According to the agreement, the Palestinian Authority is supposed to assume power at some point, but the form and the date are only vaguely defined. What the government of the Gaza Strip will ultimately look like is still completely unclear.

How will the disarmament take place?

According to the agreement, a so-called international stabilization force will ensure peace in the Gaza Strip in the future. Hamas is not fundamentally opposed to disarmament, but wants to then hand over the weapons to a new Palestinian army, which Israel firmly rejects, Schneider said. The Israeli withdrawal will likely depend directly on the progress of the disarmament, as the IDF currently still occupies 60 percent of the Gaza Strip. This will also determine the extent to which the US will fulfill its promise to the Arab countries to stop any new Israeli offensives.

This is how the aid deliveries continue

Since the signing of the agreement, Israel has allowed large quantities of humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip for the first time in months, while the distribution centers of the controversial Gaza Humanitarian Foundation are being dismantled. While Hamas no longer poses a real military threat to Israel, they will likely remain the only real power in the Gaza Strip and also regain control over the distribution of humanitarian aid, according to Schneider's assessment.

This is what is needed for lasting peace

The US administration under Trump had positioned itself as the main mediator during the negotiations. Now the US needs patience, but Trump is generally rather erratic and short-sighted. This lengthy process will show whether Trump has the staying power. How the Americans intend to proceed is also only vaguely clear. Furthermore, the Palestinian side must be more closely involved to maintain legitimacy. Schneider sees the two-state issue, on which opinions diverge sharply, as one of the greatest challenges. This conflict, he warns, has not yet been resolved.

Linth takes a similar view, calling it the first realistic possibility for an end to the war in a long time. It's currently impossible to predict when it will become clearer whether the process will hold. Much remains speculative, but for the first time, the option of ending the war is even on the table, says the political scientist.

These are the experts

Marcus Schneider is the project director of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation's (FES) regional project"Peace and Security in the Middle East," based in Beirut, Lebanon. He is responsible for the work of the Center of Excellence for Peace and Security, which is dedicated to the development and establishment of an inclusive regional security architecture in the Middle East. Previously, Schneider headed offices of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Botswana and Madagascar. He regularly publishes analyses and articles on security policy developments in the region and supports cooperation with local and international actors for sustainable peace processes.

Peter Lintl is a political scientist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin. He is deputy head of the Africa and Middle East research group and focuses on Israel, the Middle East conflict, political systems, and German-Israeli relations. His research focuses on domestic political developments in Israel, security issues, and the dynamics of the Middle East conflict.