Trump has publicly warned that if a deal is not reached by the deadline, the US will impose a new package of sanctions on Russia and so-called “secondary sanctions” on countries that continue to buy Russian energy resources. This would mean high tariffs or other economic restrictions, including on India and potentially China.

European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky greeted Trump's sudden diplomatic activity with cautious optimism. On the one hand, the US president's promises to deliver more American weapons to allies and increase sanctions pressure have raised hopes that Moscow may finally be ready to consider a ceasefire more seriously. On the other, there is a risk that Putin will use the talks to drag out the war and avoid new sanctions without losing his influence on the battlefield.