Since Jair Bolsonaro's trial for leading a coup plot reached its final stages, the former president has sought, in various ways, to test the limits of justice. Calculating that he needed to increasingly position the judge as an authoritarian persecutor, Bolsonaro acted like a soccer player who digs a penalty in the final minutes to try to save the team—which, in this case, has always been himself—or at least turn the fans against the referee. As a result, he earned the obvious red card.
House arrest is a serious measure, but it could have been worse. Bolsonaro clearly violated a precautionary measure by using his son, Flávio Bolsonaro's, social media to continue his quest to inflame his allies against the judiciary. Even though Moraes's previous ruling was unclear about what he could and could not do (give interviews, after all, could he?), on the point in question, using third-party social media to speak out against the judiciary, there was no doubt that this was prohibited. So much so that Flávio Bolsonaro subsequently deleted the message. And a court decision is enforced. It can be appealed, but it cannot simply be ignored.
Even house arrest could have been appropriate. Moraes, however, chose to keep him at home, which is serious enough. Now, the other justices will be called upon to ratify the decision. And it's hard to imagine they won't support the decision, perhaps with Luiz Fux voting against in the First Chamber.
There will be even more outcry over the matter. That was Bolsonaro's goal. By testing Moraes's limits, he gains points in his strategy of increasing international attention and the desire for US government intervention, as is already happening. In return, Bolsonaro's mobility and contacts were further affected, prematurely.
There will be no shortage of controversy. With so little time left before the trial concludes, perhaps it wouldn't be necessary to take any action other than monitoring Bolsonaro to prevent his escape. Therein lies the great challenge of confronting coup plotters targeting the Judiciary: every decision made will be used against the Supreme Court. However, failing to make them would demonstrate that the Court, for political reasons or external pressure, is failing to comply with the law. And this would only fuel the family's enthusiasm for continuing to coerce the Brazilian Judiciary. More important than that, however, is concluding the trial quickly, when the deadline for defenses is up. The game needs a final whistle.
